NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	90		Excitement	5.8 [634]		MVP	Jason Richardson (CHA): +20.3%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.6 [421]		LVP	Chris Quinn (MIA): -14.1%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.20	0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.05	-0.01	16	78%	0.29	5	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Emeka Okafor	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.02	-0.03	13	55%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Raymond Felton	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.11	-0.02	0.13	-0.00	14	59%	0.22	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.09
Jared Dudley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	11	48%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.15,0.11	0.10	-0.06	0.16	-0.00	11	55%	0.26	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	11	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	8	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	0.04	17	51%	-0.00	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	11	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	33.4	15.7	23.6	1.8	36.2	136.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +19.1%

CHA +18.0%

MIA -4.0%

CHA +4.7%

CHA +12.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	17.1	15.4	102.3	101.1	105.7
season	15.8	16.0		103.1	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.1		108.3	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.1	14.8	15.3	18.1	15.8
MIA	19.1	15.2	19.9	14.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff McInnis	45	44	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	-2	6	16.0	15.7	0.30	16.8	17.4	-0.60
Raymond Felton	77	77	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	-2	6	15.5	18.3	-2.79	16.9	18.7	-1.82
Jason Richardson	81	80	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.45	-1	3	-4	15.6	18.4	-2.82	17.1	16.9	0.26
Gerald Wallace	76	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	4	-6	15.6	17.6	-2.03	17.3	16.0	1.30
Emeka Okafor	72	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.50	-6	8	-14	15.3	18.4	-3.11	17.0	17.3	-0.25
Jared Dudley	18	19	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	-4	10	17.5	15.4	2.10	16.4	17.3	-0.93
Ryan Hollins	13	13	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	-1	4	18.1	15.4	2.64	18.0	16.9	1.07
Walter Herrmann	5	6	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	-2	6	16.8	15.8	1.03	15.2	17.2	-2.07
Matt Carroll	12	13	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	4	-6	18.7	15.4	3.29	17.3	17.1	0.25
Primoz Brezec	41	40	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	15.9	15.8	0.09	17.7	16.5	1.22

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	30	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-2	2	16.9	17.2	-0.24	17.8	14.7	3.07
Shaquille O'Neal	58	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.47	11	-13	24	16.7	17.8	-1.10	16.1	15.4	0.70
Chris Quinn	29	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.38	8	-10	18	14.6	18.4	-3.81	17.3	15.1	2.21
Anfernee Hardaway	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-4	6	15.6	18.1	-2.47	16.5	15.4	1.09
Ricky Davis	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.29	-2	0	-2	17.5	16.3	1.21	15.2	17.1	-1.82
Jason Williams	58	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	6	-14	18.4	14.6	3.81	14.8	17.9	-3.08
Alonzo Mourning	29	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	11	-24	17.8	16.7	1.10	15.4	16.1	-0.70
Udonis Haslem	69	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	2	-6	17.4	16.1	1.31	15.2	18.2	-2.97
Dorell Wright	68	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.33	-4	2	-6	17.3	16.3	0.99	16.0	15.3	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.23,0.19,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.16,0.09,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.4%
PHI 93, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.16,0	92.4%
OKC 121, DAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0	92.4%