NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	121		Excitement	5.3 [746]		MVP	Jeff Green (OKC): +14.3%
Dallas Mavericks	116		Comeback	1.9 [349]		LVP	Caron Butler (DAL): -14.2%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	15	67%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Eric Maynor	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.02	8	70%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	7	85%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	3	80%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Harden	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	-0.01	-0.03	5	79%	0.09	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	16	46%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	18	49%	0.05	5	-0.13	11	82%	0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.00	0.05	15	75%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	59%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	90%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	0.06	5	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.05	-0.05	0.06	19	62%	0.07	5	-0.14	10	100%	0.06
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	10	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	11	33%	-0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.7	35.3	16.5	27.2	2.6	39.4	150.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +27.6%

OKC +8.7%

DAL -2.3%

OKC +12.7%

OKC +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DAL	NBA	OKC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.6	15.3	119.8	116.0	106.0
season	15.0	15.2		106.2	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.6	13.5	14.4	13.9	14.1
DAL	13.7	17.8	15.0	12.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	84	82	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	-2	9	14.1	13.9	0.25	14.8	13.6	1.17
Eric Maynor	41	42	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	-1	7	16.2	12.6	3.59	14.8	14.4	0.41
James Harden	40	40	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	-11	27	14.5	13.8	0.64	15.1	14.2	0.84
Nick Collison	60	58	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	-1	7	14.0	14.2	-0.22	14.0	15.3	-1.28
Serge Ibaka	31	33	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	-5	15	16.0	13.2	2.80	16.3	13.7	2.59
Kevin Durant	87	85	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.40	-7	12	-19	13.4	18.6	-5.29	13.7	19.5	-5.84
Russell Westbrook	71	70	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.33	-7	12	-19	13.5	15.6	-2.15	13.9	16.0	-2.09
Nenad Krstic	41	41	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.12	-1	6	-7	14.2	14.0	0.22	15.6	13.8	1.80
Thabo Sefolosha	50	49	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.23	-5	10	-15	12.9	15.2	-2.28	14.6	14.5	0.04

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	34	33	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.07	5	-10	15	13.9	14.9	-0.95	14.0	14.1	-0.09
DeShawn Stevenson	3	3	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-6	7	16.7	14.5	2.16	15.0	14.1	0.94
Erick Dampier	40	41	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-9	13	15.1	14.2	0.88	14.8	13.6	1.20
Eduardo Najera	29	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-9	13	13.5	15.0	-1.48	13.8	14.2	-0.46
Rodrigue Beaubois	24	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	1	-7	11.7	15.5	-3.71	12.3	14.7	-2.35
Jason Kidd	73	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-8	11	13.8	16.7	-2.92	14.0	14.3	-0.29
Jose Juan Barea	37	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-6	7	15.3	14.2	1.11	14.3	13.9	0.41
Dirk Nowitzki	94	95	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-6	7	13.9	24.8	-10.92	13.9	17.2	-3.27
Jason Terry	52	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	8	-21	15.3	13.7	1.62	13.2	15.0	-1.76
Brendan Haywood	37	36	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.11	-19	14	-33	16.5	13.4	3.04	14.1	14.1	-0.05
Caron Butler	77	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	1	-7	15.5	11.3	4.18	15.2	10.4	4.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 94, POR 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.6%
SAC 122, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.27,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
DEN 108, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.01,0	95.0%