NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	111		Excitement	11.3 [30]		MVP	Walter Herrmann (CHA): +25.3%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	3.9 [256]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -33.2%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter Herrmann	0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.25	0.04	0.20	-0.01	12	62%	0.30	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23	0.22	0.06	0.04	15	77%	0.26	1	-0.03	9	78%	-0.03
Jake Voskuhl	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.00	7	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Brevin Knight	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.11,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.08	-0.01	9	54%	0.26	4	-0.21	6	83%	0.02
Jeff McInnis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	14	53%	0.13	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Primoz Brezec	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	11	43%	-0.05	3	-0.14	8	62%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.09	-0.01	9	95%	0.31	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.05	0.01	10	77%	0.20	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	1	80%	0.07	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.08
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.13	0.01	11	52%	-0.08	3	-0.08	7	43%	-0.17
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.38,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	9	40%	0.11	6	-0.44	12	50%	-0.32

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.5	1.8	29.2	16.5	29.5	3.3	33.5	2.5	20.4	164.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +22.6%

CHA +12.7%

CHA +8.2%

CHA +17.5%

MIA -11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	14.8	15.4	104.7	98.1	104.5
season	15.7	16.0		101.7	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.0		104.3	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHA	14.0	15.2	13.8	19.3	14.7	15.3
MIA	15.4	15.5	13.9	15.0	13.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter Herrmann	74	72	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-3	14	15.6	14.7	0.80	14.4	15.8	-1.35
Brevin Knight	70	68	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.22	14	-6	20	15.2	15.6	-0.37	15.5	13.7	1.78
Gerald Wallace	93	92	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-1	10	15.6	13.5	2.02	15.4	10.9	4.46
Emeka Okafor	67	66	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	0	8	16.1	13.9	2.16	14.9	14.7	0.26
Ryan Hollins	15	15	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	7	-6	12.1	15.8	-3.70	12.3	15.2	-2.91
Jake Voskuhl	45	45	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	4	0	13.6	16.5	-2.90	14.5	15.1	-0.59
Raymond Felton	63	61	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	5	-2	15.0	15.8	-0.77	16.1	13.1	2.99
Primoz Brezec	16	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	10	-12	15.6	15.3	0.30	15.6	14.7	0.94
Alan Anderson	33	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.06	-7	15	-22	16.2	14.9	1.26	12.9	15.7	-2.80
Jeff McInnis	44	46	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	-0.05	-9	17	-26	16.0	14.8	1.18	14.1	15.4	-1.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	42	43	0.61	-1.11	1.72	0.17	15	-23	38	13.5	15.7	-2.13	16.8	14.3	2.53
Jason Kapono	49	51	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.11	8	-16	24	13.7	15.9	-2.20	16.8	13.9	2.95
Alonzo Mourning	46	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-10	12	14.0	15.5	-1.47	15.5	15.2	0.26
Gary Payton	27	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-6	4	14.7	14.9	-0.17	15.2	15.4	-0.17
Jason Williams	49	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	1	-10	16.0	13.8	2.16	15.0	15.6	-0.51
Shaquille O'Neal	57	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-7	-1	-6	15.8	13.7	2.03	15.4	15.2	0.11
Dwyane Wade	54	53	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-6	4	14.0	15.7	-1.71	15.7	14.9	0.77
Eddie Jones	82	84	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.39	-9	1	-10	15.0	14.4	0.56	14.7	17.6	-2.88
James Posey	62	62	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.22	-17	9	-26	15.0	14.5	0.50	15.1	15.7	-0.59
Udonis Haslem	57	56	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.28	-19	11	-30	16.0	13.5	2.52	13.7	17.1	-3.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.22,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.75,0.72,0.55,0.26,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 108, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.46,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.17,0	91.2%
TOR 127, BKN 122	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.29,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.28,0	88.7%
OKC 117, DAL 114	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.28,0.44,0.41,0.71,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.45,0.08,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.33,0.57,0	87.6%