NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	108		Excitement	11.2 [24]		MVP	David West (NOH): +57.0%
New Orleans Hornets	106		Comeback	34.7 [33]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -39.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.19	0.02	21	53%	0.25	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.06
Brad Miller	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.14	0.00	0.12	-0.02	10	61%	0.26	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.08
Tyrus Thomas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	65%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
James Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	9	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	11	52%	0.05	3	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	-0.39	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.38,-0.44,-0.44,-0.34,-0.34,-0.39	-0.09	-0.30	-0.00	19	42%	-0.22	4	-0.17	5	80%	0.08

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.5,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57	0.57	0.10	0.46	-0.02	22	60%	0.71	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.15	-0.03	0.03	12	74%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.06	0.01	13	62%	0.06	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	15	41%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	15	40%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.12	0.01	8	25%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23	-0.23	-0.07	-0.16	-0.00	4	30%	-0.06	2	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	31.6	15.8	28.4	2.6	37.5	2.7	9.1	155.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH -18.2%

CHI +20.3%

CHI +43.0%

NOH -4.5%

CHI +9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOH	NBA	CHI	NOH	NBA
this game	14.8	15.3	15.3	101.9	101.0	106.0
season	14.7	15.5		101.9	106.0
opponent	15.2	15.7		108.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	12.2	14.0	15.6	17.4	16.6	14.8
NOH	13.1	17.3	16.3	13.9	18.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	86	83	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.41	14	-12	26	14.6	15.5	-0.92	15.1	16.4	-1.35
Derrick Rose	87	86	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-5	12	14.9	14.3	0.66	15.8	13.3	2.47
Kirk Hinrich	90	90	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-6	14	14.2	17.9	-3.69	15.2	16.0	-0.77
Joakim Noah	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	-1	4	15.7	13.4	2.35	16.4	13.7	2.76
Brad Miller	55	52	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	0	2	14.5	15.2	-0.72	14.9	15.7	-0.79
John Salmons	42	43	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.34	-10	12	-22	15.6	14.3	1.31	14.2	16.1	-1.88
Tyrus Thomas	41	41	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	11	-20	14.2	15.2	-0.95	14.6	15.8	-1.16
James Johnson	14	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.00	-5	7	-12	14.4	14.9	-0.43	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Taj Gibson	52	53	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.30	-2	4	-6	15.1	14.5	0.58	15.8	14.9	0.95

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Wright	33	31	0.66	-1.16	1.82	0.19	16	-18	34	14.0	16.0	-2.00	18.2	13.4	4.75
Darius Songaila	48	51	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.30	1	-3	4	16.1	14.7	1.48	16.4	13.3	3.10
Chris Paul	95	96	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-4	6	15.0	18.8	-3.82	14.9	13.9	1.00
Peja Stojakovic	87	89	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.54	2	-4	6	15.2	16.2	-0.99	14.1	18.3	-4.16
Marcus Thornton	81	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.22	-12	10	-22	15.5	14.8	0.66	13.7	18.4	-4.67
Emeka Okafor	60	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.41	-6	4	-10	15.3	15.4	-0.02	13.0	17.3	-4.28
Darren Collison	40	39	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.56	-2	0	-2	16.0	14.9	1.10	16.5	13.8	2.75
David West	81	81	-0.97	0.47	-1.45	-0.65	-11	9	-20	15.6	14.6	0.93	14.7	15.0	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.46,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 111, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.22,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.75,0.72,0.55,0.26,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.43,0.15,0	91.2%
OKC 111, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.39,0.52,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.84,0.85,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.14,0.28,0	90.5%
DEN 126, OKC 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.94,0.73,0.5,0.56,0.46,0.56,0.27,0	89.5%