NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Excitement	10.9 [34]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +8.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	13.6 [77]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (POR): -17.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	12	63%	0.18	5	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Reggie Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.01	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	33	49%	0.13	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.05	-0.11	0.01	8	67%	0.04	1	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	7	40%	-0.04	2	-0.11	1	0%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	24	48%	-0.04	5	-0.13	10	80%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.03	9	78%	0.19	3	-0.11	5	80%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	40%	0.01	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.04
Nolan Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.22,0.11,0.06,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.09	-0.12	0.02	28	58%	0.10	4	-0.14	11	100%	0.10
Marcus Camby	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	11	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	-0.00	15	38%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	18	44%	0.00	3	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	9	22%	-0.12	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.3	2.4	29.6	15.4	26.4	1.7	40.1	1.6	16.1	161.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +37.4%

POR -5.0%

OKC +44.3%

POR -19.3%

POR -7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	POR	NBA	OKC	POR	NBA
this game	13.4	17.0	15.6	106.7	101.9	102.8
season	14.7	15.7		107.9	104.1
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.7	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
OKC	12.4	14.3	12.7	13.1	16.8	13.4
POR	15.8	17.0	16.8	18.2	18.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	78	79	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.38	8	-4	12	13.4	13.2	0.21	17.2	16.5	0.65
Kevin Durant	87	90	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.38	3	1	2	13.5	13.0	0.46	16.8	18.3	-1.44
Russell Westbrook	80	83	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.40	1	3	-2	13.4	13.3	0.07	17.1	16.9	0.21
Serge Ibaka	74	76	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	13.3	13.6	-0.30	17.3	16.2	1.14
Kendrick Perkins	69	70	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	4	-4	14.0	12.1	1.87	17.0	17.2	-0.21
Daequan Cook	44	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	5	-6	12.8	13.8	-0.94	16.5	17.4	-0.88
Nazr Mohammed	24	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	-2	8	13.3	13.4	-0.07	17.0	17.0	0.02
Reggie Jackson	24	22	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	1	2	13.3	13.4	-0.07	16.9	17.1	-0.21
Nick Collison	40	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	6	-8	12.8	13.7	-0.91	17.2	16.9	0.36

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	40	41	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.16	6	-10	16	16.6	17.3	-0.73	13.9	13.0	0.90
Craig Smith	19	20	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-4	4	16.7	17.1	-0.36	12.8	13.5	-0.72
Nolan Smith	16	17	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-2	0	16.1	17.2	-1.07	14.1	13.3	0.81
Gerald Wallace	76	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-3	2	17.0	17.1	-0.15	13.7	12.7	1.01
Jamal Crawford	86	87	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-4	4	17.4	15.2	2.28	13.3	14.1	-0.81
LaMarcus Aldridge	86	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	17.1	16.7	0.36	13.5	12.8	0.72
Nicolas Batum	62	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	4	-12	17.5	16.3	1.23	13.3	13.5	-0.27
Wesley Matthews	75	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.56	-1	-3	2	16.4	18.7	-2.29	13.0	14.3	-1.29
Marcus Camby	65	62	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.45	-10	6	-16	17.3	16.6	0.73	13.2	13.6	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.3,0.39,0.52,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.16,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.84,0.85,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.14,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 108, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.46,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.42,0.46,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.17,0	90.5%
SAC 108, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.83,0.54,0.47,0.23,0.02,0.02,0	90.5%
ORL 119, PHI 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.58,0.46,0.25,0.28,0.29,0.27,0	89.6%