NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	105		Excitement	10.5 [60]		MVP	Ricky Davis (MIN): +86.3%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	29.7 [34]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -72.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.86	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.86	0.21	0.64	-0.01	21	73%	0.99	4	-0.13	7	100%	0.17
Mike James	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	8	60%	0.09	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Randy Foye	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	90%	0.17	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Rashad McCants	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.36	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.36	-0.04	-0.34	-0.01	21	42%	-0.35	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.39	0.39	0.12	0.29	0.01	16	64%	0.41	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.00	14	60%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	8	47%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	64%	0.17	3	-0.17	10	60%	-0.05
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	8	48%	0.02	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	12	25%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	5	57%	0.05	5	-0.21	4	50%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.43,-0.43,-0.73	-0.73	-0.14	-0.59	-0.00	14	29%	-0.64	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.9	2.5	30.9	15.5	23.3	2.6	36.2	1.6	17.0	158.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +53.2%

MIN +19.8%

ORL -46.2%

MIN +16.2%

MIN +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	17.5	15.4	108.2	109.5	104.5
season	15.4	15.9		101.9	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.6		103.0	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIN	13.3	15.1	19.1	15.9	14.8	15.6
ORL	18.0	13.1	17.8	20.9	20.9	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	78	77	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.48	9	-8	17	15.9	14.5	1.36	18.5	13.2	5.38
Marko Jaric	79	76	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.39	8	-7	15	16.1	13.7	2.40	18.0	15.7	2.30
Kevin Garnett	78	76	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-3	7	16.1	13.7	2.41	17.7	16.9	0.72
Craig Smith	53	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.47	-3	4	-7	14.5	17.0	-2.49	17.8	17.2	0.51
Mike James	47	47	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	-9	19	16.3	15.0	1.36	17.4	17.7	-0.33
Mark Blount	54	52	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	0	1	16.7	14.3	2.36	16.2	19.1	-2.82
Randy Foye	52	50	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.47	-14	15	-29	14.8	16.6	-1.79	17.2	17.9	-0.65
Mark Madsen	9	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	1	-1	11.9	16.0	-4.11	21.5	17.0	4.44
Rashad McCants	35	35	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	11	-21	14.3	16.4	-2.04	14.9	19.0	-4.09

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	33	34	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.13	8	-9	17	15.4	18.7	-3.31	13.2	16.9	-3.71
Keyon Dooling	45	43	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.04	4	-5	9	17.0	18.0	-1.08	15.7	15.6	0.06
Darko Milicic	71	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.49	10	-11	21	17.4	17.9	-0.47	14.7	18.3	-3.59
Trevor Ariza	57	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.53	10	-11	21	18.0	16.8	1.14	15.9	15.2	0.63
Hedo Turkoglu	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	9	-19	17.0	18.0	-1.03	14.9	16.2	-1.26
Tony Battie	24	25	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	10	-21	17.9	17.4	0.47	18.3	14.7	3.59
Grant Hill	81	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.40	1	-2	3	17.0	20.3	-3.24	16.3	11.6	4.73
Jameer Nelson	56	60	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.42	-8	7	-15	18.0	16.9	1.11	15.8	15.4	0.43
Dwight Howard	66	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	8	-17	19.2	13.8	5.37	16.1	14.6	1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.23,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.43,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.58,0.5,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.63,0	89.0%
DET 103, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.83,0.83,0.58,0.46,0.19,0.54,0.55,0.74,0	88.1%
DEN 102, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.46,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.54,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.27,0	87.7%