NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	13.1 [17]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +99.5%
Chicago Bulls	107		Comeback	63.9 [29]		LVP	Malik Beasley (DEN): -29.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	1.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,1	0.10	0.89	-0.00	13	66%	1.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	7	68%	0.13	1	-0.06	5	20%	-0.08
Torrey Craig	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	58%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Trey Lyles	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	9	47%	0.08	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Monte Morris	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	13	43%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	-0.17	0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	18	44%	-0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.25,-0.19,-0.03,0.19,0.04,-0.19	-0.04	-0.16	-0.01	20	54%	0.11	6	-0.30	1	100%	0.00
Malik Beasley	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.29	-0.08	-0.22	-0.00	9	33%	-0.09	2	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.12	0.17	-0.00	10	75%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Blakeney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.00	9	71%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05
Chandler Hutchison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.00	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.11	-0.00	21	52%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.04
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	10	29%	-0.09	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.22,0.07,0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.04,-0.13	-0.13	0.06	-0.18	0.01	24	54%	0.03	2	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	8	31%	0.03	5	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	25.8	14.7	27.1	1.5	32.0	1.8	11.0	139.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	3.3	15.6	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +69.3%

CHI -6.2%

CHI -4.4%

DEN +2.7%

CHI -11.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	14.3	106.9	105.9	109.3
season	14.8	14.6		112.0	104.2
opponent	14.3	14.6		112.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.8	13.4	15.2	16.8	16.0	15.3
CHI	14.2	16.6	14.8	20.5	14.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	82	82	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.59	9	-8	17	15.7	13.7	1.92	16.6	14.6	1.98
Paul Millsap	61	60	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.60	7	-6	13	16.3	13.7	2.56	16.2	16.2	-0.01
Malik Beasley	58	59	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.54	2	-1	3	14.4	16.5	-2.07	17.1	15.0	2.12
Nikola Jokic	60	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	-3	7	16.6	13.4	3.25	15.9	16.6	-0.64
Gary Harris	72	71	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.42	-3	4	-7	15.7	14.3	1.38	15.6	17.6	-2.01
Mason Plumlee	41	40	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	4	-7	13.4	16.6	-3.25	16.6	15.9	0.64
Torrey Craig	43	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.07	-1	2	-3	16.5	14.4	2.07	15.0	17.1	-2.12
Monte Morris	48	49	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	5	-9	14.1	16.4	-2.31	16.4	16.0	0.47
Trey Lyles	40	41	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.13	-6	7	-13	13.7	16.3	-2.56	16.2	16.2	0.01

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Arcidiacono	50	50	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.08	9	-10	19	15.9	16.5	-0.53	13.9	16.7	-2.85
Jabari Parker	63	65	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	2	-5	17.7	13.8	3.89	15.6	14.7	0.89
Cristiano Felicio	32	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	4	-9	17.3	15.7	1.69	13.1	16.2	-3.17
Antonio Blakeney	28	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	3	-7	17.8	15.6	2.21	13.8	15.9	-2.07
Cameron Payne	45	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	4	-9	16.5	16.0	0.50	16.5	14.3	2.13
Chandler Hutchison	60	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-5	9	16.2	16.1	0.15	15.1	15.5	-0.36
Zach LaVine	73	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-4	7	15.6	17.8	-2.21	15.9	13.8	2.07
Wendell Carter Jr.	69	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.48	4	-5	9	15.7	17.3	-1.69	16.2	13.1	3.17
Justin Holiday	76	76	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.71	-7	6	-13	15.1	19.4	-4.27	15.3	15.3	0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.43,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.58,0.5,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.63,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 103, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.83,0.83,0.58,0.46,0.19,0.54,0.55,0.74,0	89.4%
MIN 105, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.23,0.58,0	89.0%
NJN 90, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0	88.6%