NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	11.3 [27]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +32.8%
Charlotte Bobcats	100		Comeback	9.2 [97]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (CHA): -30.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.33	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	17	71%	0.35	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Primoz Brezec	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	100%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.11,-0.23,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	25	46%	0.00	1	0.01	6	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0	0.09	-0.06	0.02	17	65%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Walter Herrmann	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	4	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.02	-0.00	7	28%	-0.04	5	-0.13	4	75%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.08,-0.23	-0.03	-0.20	0.00	11	42%	-0.15	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.04	0.17	0.02	14	59%	0.27	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.09	-0.01	8	48%	0.15	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.06
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	20	48%	0.07	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Hollins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermareo Davidson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,-0.1	-0.10	0.09	-0.19	0.00	11	70%	0.22	2	-0.32	5	60%	-0.03
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.17,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.36,-0.43,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31	-0.31	-0.10	-0.19	0.02	21	47%	-0.07	6	-0.23	13	69%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.5	2.8	32.2	15.7	30.2	2.6	30.5	2.4	14.2	154.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -51.0%

DET +0.1%

DET +30.5%

DET +59.1%

DET +11.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHA	NBA	DET	CHA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.1	15.4	105.1	104.2	105.7
season	16.8	15.8		108.8	103.1
opponent	15.1	15.8		107.8	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	13.4	17.8	15.3	19.5	19.0	16.6
CHA	16.6	14.1	18.2	16.5	14.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	75	73	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-4	11	16.7	16.3	0.43	15.4	18.4	-2.95
Richard Hamilton	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	2	-1	17.0	14.6	2.40	16.2	15.7	0.52
Rasheed Wallace	63	63	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	0	3	16.9	16.1	0.85	16.6	15.3	1.33
Jason Maxiell	41	40	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	4	-5	17.5	16.0	1.47	15.4	16.7	-1.24
Arron Afflalo	10	9	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	-3	9	11.8	17.2	-5.38	13.3	16.4	-3.10
Chauncey Billups	73	70	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	-4	11	15.6	19.7	-4.14	16.6	15.0	1.57
Antonio McDyess	68	66	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	-2	7	16.1	17.9	-1.87	16.1	16.3	-0.18
Primoz Brezec	12	12	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.00	3	0	3	17.2	16.6	0.61	18.6	15.8	2.79
Jarvis Hayes	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	7	-11	16.3	16.7	-0.43	18.4	15.4	2.95
Walter Herrmann	11	10	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	9	-15	16.2	16.7	-0.51	15.2	16.3	-1.06
Rodney Stuckey	22	22	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.02	-9	12	-21	19.2	15.9	3.35	15.7	16.3	-0.60

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Hollins	21	21	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-7	11	14.1	16.7	-2.56	16.7	16.6	0.04
Jermareo Davidson	8	9	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.08	5	-8	13	13.9	16.4	-2.48	20.2	16.3	3.95
Jared Dudley	55	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.31	5	-8	13	16.1	16.2	-0.13	16.1	17.3	-1.18
Matt Carroll	70	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	6	-15	16.0	16.5	-0.54	16.0	18.4	-2.32
Nazr Mohammed	56	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	0	-3	16.6	15.5	1.02	16.9	16.3	0.63
Emeka Okafor	81	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-1	-1	16.5	14.1	2.46	16.9	15.1	1.88
Jason Richardson	92	93	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	1	-5	16.3	12.0	4.33	16.7	14.8	1.93
Gerald Wallace	88	89	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	5	-13	16.4	13.9	2.48	16.3	20.2	-3.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.33,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.83,0.83,0.58,0.46,0.19,0.54,0.55,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.35,0.43,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.58,0.5,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.63,0	89.4%
MIN 105, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.23,0.58,0	88.1%
CLE 111, IND 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.42,0.54,0.47,0.28,0.55,0.42,0	88.0%