NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	94		Excitement	9.0 [139]		MVP	Larry Hughes (CLE): +34.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	97		Comeback	2.2 [632]		LVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): -23.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.10	0.01	15	62%	0.23	5	-0.12	7	71%	-0.01
Etan Thomas	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	7	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Antonio Daniels	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
Antawn Jamison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.06	0.03	0.08	0.05	17	53%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.11
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	12	27%	-0.00	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.18	-0.01	-0.17	0.00	4	46%	0.02	1	-0.20	5	40%	-0.08
Jarvis Hayes	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.11,-0.24	0.05	-0.28	-0.00	10	52%	-0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.22	0.13	0.00	15	77%	0.34	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.05
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	57%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.00	2	83%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	1	64%	0.01	0	0.00	9	56%	-0.09
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	10	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.04	0.02	24	48%	0.21	5	-0.27	6	33%	-0.07
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	13	50%	0.03	3	-0.12	2	0%	-0.02
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	5	33%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.0	33.2	18.6	27.2	3.5	40.4	152.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +57.1%

WAS -19.4%

CLE +20.7%

WAS -8.6%

CLE +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CLE	NBA	WAS	CLE	NBA
this game	14.5	16.6	15.4	98.9	106.6	104.5
season	14.8	16.0		107.8	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.3		99.6	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.6	13.8	17.1	12.5	14.5
CLE	15.4	16.2	17.2	17.5	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	37	35	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.19	9	-12	21	11.3	16.4	-5.12	16.7	16.4	0.30
Michael Ruffin	8	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.08	-7	4	-11	17.7	14.1	3.60	15.6	16.7	-1.03
Antonio Daniels	59	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-6	9	12.6	17.5	-4.86	17.0	15.8	1.26
Jarvis Hayes	51	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.43	7	-10	17	12.5	16.7	-4.19	16.9	16.2	0.73
Etan Thomas	42	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	6	-15	17.1	12.3	4.78	16.3	16.8	-0.49
DeShawn Stevenson	55	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	9	-21	16.7	11.4	5.32	15.9	17.5	-1.58
Caron Butler	84	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.36	-2	-1	-1	14.7	12.4	2.36	16.8	15.0	1.75
Gilbert Arenas	77	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.52	3	-6	9	14.3	14.9	-0.61	16.7	16.1	0.63
Antawn Jamison	62	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	4	-11	15.2	13.0	2.23	16.2	17.2	-1.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	72	75	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.45	14	-11	25	15.9	18.9	-3.02	15.4	10.7	4.69
LeBron James	76	80	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.50	3	0	3	16.7	15.9	0.83	14.8	12.7	2.04
Drew Gooden	61	63	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	-8	19	17.0	15.6	1.48	15.8	11.8	4.03
Eric Snow	42	43	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.18	5	-2	7	16.1	16.9	-0.78	15.9	13.3	2.61
Donyell Marshall	41	42	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	5	-7	17.7	15.6	2.09	12.7	15.8	-3.12
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	36	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	-5	13	16.4	16.6	-0.19	16.9	12.6	4.31
David Wesley	25	24	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.16	-1	4	-5	14.1	17.5	-3.42	11.3	15.5	-4.23
Damon Jones	48	50	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.07	-2	5	-7	17.4	15.6	1.77	12.8	16.2	-3.40
Anderson Varejao	42	44	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.31	-12	15	-27	15.6	17.4	-1.79	12.1	16.5	-4.36
Sasha Pavlovic	12	14	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.05	-9	12	-21	20.1	16.0	4.06	13.4	14.6	-1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.65,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.8,0.85,0.73,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 90, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.76,0.36,0.69,0.72,1	91.8%
NJN 89, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.52,0.68,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.84,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.45,0.58,1	91.4%
UTA 89, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.87,0.95,0.91,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.73,1	91.3%