NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	73		Excitement	6.0 [653]		MVP	Fred Jones (IND): +6.7%
Indiana Pacers	76		Comeback	1.4 [1017]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -19.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	14	56%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	13	59%	0.10	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Antonio Burks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	8	42%	-0.09	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.04
Stromile Swift	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	10	37%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Shane Battier	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	9	44%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	11	36%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	16	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	8	35%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.20	-0.02	-0.03	15	32%	-0.08	5	-0.11	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	29.3	15.4	22.4	2.4	37.8	132.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +24.5%

IND +9.0%

IND +18.3%

MEM -5.1%

IND +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	IND	NBA	MEM	IND	NBA
this game	17.0	17.7	15.5	89.0	90.5	104.0
season	16.4	16.8		103.7	101.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.6	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.8	16.6	19.0	15.4	17.0
IND	16.7	17.7	15.3	21.4	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	28	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-1	-1	16.6	17.2	-0.61	16.6	18.3	-1.66
Ryan Humphrey	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	1	-5	16.3	17.1	-0.81	17.5	17.8	-0.30
Antonio Burks	20	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-2	1	16.5	17.1	-0.63	17.1	17.9	-0.84
Bonzi Wells	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.37	6	-9	15	16.5	17.5	-0.98	19.0	16.3	2.73
Stromile Swift	48	48	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	1	-5	17.2	16.7	0.46	17.1	18.5	-1.37
Mike Miller	50	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.27	0	-3	3	17.1	16.8	0.32	18.1	17.1	1.03
Lorenzen Wright	51	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-7	11	16.8	17.3	-0.51	17.2	18.5	-1.32
Earl Watson	62	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-1	-1	17.1	16.5	0.63	17.9	17.1	0.84
Brian Cardinal	40	42	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	5	-13	17.4	16.5	0.93	18.6	16.9	1.71
Shane Battier	57	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.31	-4	1	-5	17.2	16.4	0.83	17.3	18.8	-1.51

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Jackson	67	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-3	9	17.4	18.9	-1.54	17.3	15.6	1.76
Jeff Foster	50	50	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-3	9	18.1	17.1	0.95	17.2	16.6	0.63
Jermaine O'Neal	63	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	2	-1	18.2	16.2	1.97	17.4	15.7	1.69
Fred Jones	54	51	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	0	3	18.9	15.6	3.29	17.5	16.1	1.41
Anthony Johnson	59	60	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.31	1	2	-1	18.1	16.8	1.30	16.7	17.7	-1.03
Eddie Gill	25	22	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	1	1	16.8	18.1	-1.30	17.7	16.7	1.03
Scot Pollard	20	18	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	1	1	16.0	18.2	-2.25	16.1	17.2	-1.11
Reggie Miller	47	47	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	6	-9	16.8	18.9	-2.06	15.9	18.4	-2.49
Austin Croshere	35	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	6	-9	17.3	18.0	-0.78	16.3	17.4	-1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.83,0.85,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, CHA 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.95,1,0.97,0.96,1	94.6%
SAC 107, LAL 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.83,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	93.9%
CHI 98, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%