NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	98		Excitement	5.3 [751]		MVP	Jason Hart (SAS): +7.8%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	1.4 [968]		LVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): -12.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lonny Baxter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	0.00	0.10	12	79%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	6	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.04	15	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.00	0.06	7	69%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	71%	0.03	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Corie Blount	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kendall Gill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	11	44%	-0.03	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.03	5	100%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	14	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	10	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.01	13	54%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	86%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.05	7	64%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	5	58%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.00	3	-0.06	7	57%	-0.03
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	526.3	1.6	27.3	17.6	28.0	2.0	26.2	629.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +8.5%

CHI -2.3%

SAS +28.0%

SAS +14.6%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	15.6	15.7	108.9	119.8	100.5
season	15.2	15.9		94.6	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.4		92.7	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.2	16.7	18.3	14.8	16.3
SAS	16.8	15.3	13.0	17.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	47	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-10	9	16.0	16.5	-0.45	16.3	14.8	1.41
Lonny Baxter	35	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-12	13	15.2	16.9	-1.73	15.7	15.5	0.28
Corie Blount	57	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.15	-1	-10	9	16.4	15.9	0.50	15.6	15.6	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	42	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-7	3	15.4	17.0	-1.64	15.5	15.7	-0.20
Jalen Rose	55	55	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-4	-3	16.3	16.2	0.04	15.4	15.8	-0.43
Donyell Marshall	44	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	1	-13	16.2	16.3	-0.06	15.5	15.6	-0.14
Jamal Crawford	58	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	1	-13	17.2	14.5	2.72	15.4	15.8	-0.36
Eddie Robinson	43	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-1	-9	16.5	16.0	0.45	14.8	16.3	-1.41
Eddy Curry	69	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	-2	-7	16.4	15.9	0.46	15.8	14.7	1.18

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	62	61	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	0	11	15.9	14.9	0.99	16.4	16.0	0.33
Rasho Nesterovic	52	52	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.08	19	-8	27	15.7	15.4	0.37	16.5	15.9	0.58
Manu Ginobili	60	60	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.05	18	-7	25	15.6	15.6	-0.01	16.2	16.3	-0.02
Tim Duncan	62	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	0	11	15.6	15.4	0.18	16.4	15.8	0.63
Tony Parker	54	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.00	14	-3	17	16.0	14.9	1.10	16.5	15.9	0.61
Malik Rose	36	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	6	-1	14.2	16.5	-2.28	16.6	16.1	0.50
Jason Hart	37	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	14	-17	14.9	16.0	-1.10	15.9	16.5	-0.61
Hedo Turkoglu	22	22	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	13	-15	14.9	15.8	-0.93	16.5	16.2	0.32
Devin Brown	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	16.5	15.5	0.99	14.2	16.4	-2.18
Kevin Willis	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	16.5	15.5	0.99	14.2	16.4	-2.18
Ron Mercer	32	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	12	-13	15.3	15.7	-0.45	16.2	16.3	-0.06
Robert Horry	26	24	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	20	-29	16.8	15.1	1.73	15.2	16.6	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 98, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.74,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.81,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.4%
TOR 115, LAC 123	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.85,0.92,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.9%
POR 105, UTA 118	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%