NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	90		Excitement	8.7 [180]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +39.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	3.9 [453]		LVP	Rick Brunson (LAC): -26.5%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.15	0.12	0.02	21	66%	0.26	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Quinton Ross	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	13	38%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	17	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	15	27%	-0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.26	-0.08	-0.18	-0.00	7	29%	-0.21	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.39	0.39	0.14	0.26	0.01	23	63%	0.39	0	0.00	5	100%	0.07
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	5	69%	0.10	1	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	10	30%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	11	50%	-0.01	3	-0.13	8	87%	0.07
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	25.0	15.7	24.2	2.4	29.4	122.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +21.4%

MIL +27.5%

MIL +35.2%

LAC -33.3%

LAC -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MIL	NBA	LAC	MIL	NBA
this game	17.1	17.0	15.5	105.9	109.5	104.0
season	16.0	16.0		103.0	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	15.2	15.4	18.6	19.7	17.1
MIL	19.9	15.3	15.5	17.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Kaman	61	60	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-5	8	16.5	18.6	-2.08	18.4	13.3	5.13
Mikki Moore	15	14	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	2	-6	17.1	17.1	0.00	14.1	17.5	-3.46
Marko Jaric	65	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	16.7	18.5	-1.86	18.2	12.6	5.65
Elton Brand	63	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.40	5	-7	12	17.2	17.0	0.17	17.5	15.5	2.03
Quinton Ross	72	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.25	-2	0	-2	17.1	17.4	-0.30	16.9	17.3	-0.38
Rick Brunson	37	39	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	6	-14	17.7	16.7	1.02	14.9	18.7	-3.84
Bobby Simmons	81	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.44	-2	0	-2	17.3	14.5	2.76	17.0	16.6	0.37
Zeljko Rebraca	31	32	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.43	-8	6	-14	18.2	16.5	1.68	14.4	18.5	-4.06

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	42	43	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.49	5	-3	8	18.4	15.5	2.95	17.3	16.9	0.40
Desmond Mason	72	73	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.41	7	-5	12	17.2	15.4	1.79	17.2	17.0	0.15
Dan Gadzuric	44	47	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.52	2	0	2	17.0	16.8	0.20	16.9	17.5	-0.62
Joe Smith	55	56	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	0	2	17.6	15.8	1.82	17.2	16.9	0.30
Michael Redd	66	67	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.44	-8	10	-18	18.0	13.2	4.75	16.5	19.5	-3.01
Keith Van Horn	30	30	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	-3	8	14.1	18.5	-4.44	18.5	16.4	2.12
Toni Kukoc	29	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	2	-2	15.8	17.6	-1.82	16.9	17.2	-0.30
Zaza Pachulia	40	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.08	0	2	-2	16.8	17.0	-0.20	17.5	16.9	0.62
Mike James	42	42	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.05	-3	5	-8	15.5	18.4	-2.95	16.9	17.3	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 91, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.32,0.47,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.45,0.42,1	92.7%
UTA 95, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	92.7%
IND 117, GSW 120	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.63,0.34,0.42,1	92.3%