NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	3.8 [1083]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +13.6%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	1.3 [471]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.02	11	79%	0.14	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.04	11	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	7	61%	0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Damon Jones	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.12	0.00	-0.09	7	57%	0.03	5	-0.05	14	71%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	19	57%	-0.01	5	-0.09	20	35%	-0.10

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.01	-0.05	19	53%	0.05	0	0.00	13	85%	0.01
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	42%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	11	50%	0.01	4	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	0.06	17	63%	0.01	5	-0.09	12	67%	-0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	14	29%	-0.11	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.8	33.7	16.8	29.6	3.3	34.3	145.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.6%

TOR -2.2%

MIA +11.9%

TOR -0.2%

TOR -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	14.1	15.5	113.3	98.0	104.0
season	15.7	15.1		107.9	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.0	15.9	15.9	15.3
TOR	14.3	16.3	14.1	11.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	2	11	15.4	14.8	0.60	13.2	18.2	-4.97
Shaquille O'Neal	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.08	13	2	11	15.4	14.8	0.60	13.2	18.2	-4.97
Rasual Butler	51	50	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.06	12	3	9	15.8	14.8	1.02	14.2	13.9	0.34
Damon Jones	58	57	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.00	10	5	5	15.2	15.5	-0.31	13.0	15.6	-2.64
Dwyane Wade	63	65	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	10	-5	14.8	16.3	-1.46	15.0	12.2	2.80
Shandon Anderson	28	28	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	8	-1	15.8	15.1	0.66	14.4	13.9	0.50
Udonis Haslem	66	66	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	11	-7	14.9	16.2	-1.25	13.9	14.4	-0.45
Keyon Dooling	40	41	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	10	-5	15.5	15.2	0.31	15.6	13.0	2.64
Michael Doleac	20	21	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.08	6	9	-3	15.6	15.2	0.36	17.4	13.2	4.21

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Williams	24	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.10	2	-17	19	12.7	14.5	-1.86	15.7	15.2	0.44
Rafael Araujo	30	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-11	7	14.0	14.1	-0.05	15.8	15.1	0.65
Eric Williams	29	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-10	5	14.1	14.0	0.09	15.4	15.3	0.19
Milt Palacio	21	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-11	7	18.6	12.8	5.79	14.3	15.6	-1.31
Loren Woods	5	5	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	-9	3	18.8	13.8	4.98	10.8	15.6	-4.76
Chris Bosh	68	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.14	-2	-13	11	13.2	16.0	-2.78	15.7	14.2	1.51
Matt Bonner	30	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.13	-12	-3	-9	17.7	12.5	5.18	13.6	16.0	-2.41
Donyell Marshall	21	21	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	16.3	13.5	2.88	14.8	15.5	-0.71
Lamond Murray	35	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.09	-13	-2	-11	13.9	14.2	-0.33	16.5	14.7	1.81
Morris Peterson	82	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-12	9	13.1	19.2	-6.11	15.2	16.1	-0.96
Jalen Rose	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	-8	1	14.0	14.2	-0.13	15.3	15.3	0.01
Rafer Alston	78	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.03	-13	-2	-11	12.9	18.6	-5.75	15.6	14.2	1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 104, PHI 72	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
BOS 128, PHX 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.33,0.36,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
NYK 94, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%