NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	94		Excitement	3.8 [1049]		MVP	Eddy Curry (NYK): +10.9%
Orlando Magic	86		Comeback	1.2 [414]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -15.0%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddy Curry	0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	13	67%	0.15	2	-0.04	14	50%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	12	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Nate Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	3	-0.03	9	78%	-0.01
David Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.06	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.16	0.01	-0.10	14	28%	-0.01	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Jerome James	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.03	0.06	10	70%	0.11	3	-0.06	7	71%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	8	52%	0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.05	11	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	-0.05	15	36%	-0.04	2	-0.01	6	50%	-0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	32%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	11	23%	-0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.6	29.5	16.8	27.7	2.6	39.7	145.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +49.5%

ORL -1.4%

NYK +4.4%

ORL -5.0%

NYK +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	ORL	NBA	NYK	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.0	15.4	101.1	93.5	104.5
season	15.7	15.9		103.7	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.0	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	16.4	15.2	19.6	14.1	16.1
ORL	14.2	16.8	16.4	13.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	83	81	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	6	-4	16.3	14.1	2.25	14.3	20.3	-5.96
Channing Frye	52	50	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	-5	18	15.4	17.0	-1.68	15.8	14.1	1.66
Eddy Curry	74	75	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.10	9	-1	10	17.0	12.5	4.57	15.3	13.6	1.76
Stephon Marbury	69	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	5	-2	15.8	17.0	-1.15	14.8	15.7	-0.90
Jamal Crawford	76	75	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	5	-2	16.3	15.2	1.14	14.6	16.8	-2.21
Nate Robinson	34	33	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	-2	12	17.2	15.5	1.73	15.7	14.6	1.10
David Lee	48	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	10	-12	14.0	18.4	-4.36	15.0	15.0	-0.04
Jerome James	29	28	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	6	-4	16.7	15.8	0.90	15.7	14.7	0.94

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	10	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-8	8	13.9	15.2	-1.26	18.4	15.8	2.56
Bo Outlaw	16	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-7	6	13.8	15.3	-1.46	15.9	16.2	-0.28
JJ Redick	42	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-8	8	14.6	15.3	-0.70	14.9	17.1	-2.28
Tony Battie	46	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-6	4	15.4	14.6	0.83	17.7	14.5	3.23
Keith Bogans	56	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	1	-10	15.6	14.1	1.45	16.0	16.3	-0.32
Jameer Nelson	61	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-3	-2	14.4	16.2	-1.72	15.7	16.9	-1.24
Carlos Arroyo	42	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	0	-8	15.7	14.5	1.23	16.9	15.4	1.50
Dwight Howard	66	68	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-2	-4	15.0	15.2	-0.18	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Darko Milicic	51	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	15.8	14.1	1.67	15.5	16.8	-1.28
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-4	0	14.6	16.5	-1.88	16.1	16.2	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 104, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
NOH 96, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.4%
BOS 112, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%