NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	3.8 [1036]		MVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): +13.0%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.3 [1015]		LVP	Rodney McGruder (MIA): -10.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.00	-0.00	11	68%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.01	16	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	87%	0.15	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	117%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	80%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	7	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	48%	0.03	3	-0.06	9	56%	-0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	0.00	0.05	23	45%	-0.04	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	0.00	0.06	15	64%	0.10	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.00	0.10	13	69%	0.07	2	-0.04	10	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.03	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	0.04	7	69%	0.02	6	-0.12	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	24.5	15.4	29.5	2.5	42.5	142.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.5%

BOS +0.4%

BOS +2.9%

BOS +6.0%

BOS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.3	14.8	114.3	108.3	107.7
season	14.7	15.4		110.1	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.9	15.8	15.5	15.4	15.4
MIA	15.7	17.0	12.2	12.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Bradley	78	78	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-4	16	15.3	15.6	-0.25	14.9	11.6	3.35
Marcus Smart	69	66	0.35	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	6	-4	15.5	15.1	0.37	13.6	15.7	-2.11
Jonas Jerebko	41	39	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	1	6	16.8	14.4	2.46	14.5	14.1	0.43
Kelly Olynyk	39	38	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.03	11	-3	14	16.5	14.7	1.85	14.9	13.9	1.02
Jae Crowder	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	3	2	14.8	16.6	-1.78	14.0	14.9	-0.95
Isaiah Thomas	73	72	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	5	-2	15.0	16.6	-1.67	13.5	16.7	-3.29
Terry Rozier	25	24	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	3	2	16.6	15.0	1.67	16.7	13.5	3.29
Tyler Zeller	54	52	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	8	-8	14.5	16.5	-1.96	14.2	14.3	-0.11
Amir Johnson	26	27	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	9	-10	14.5	15.7	-1.22	15.5	13.8	1.67
Jaylen Brown	20	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	12	-16	15.6	15.3	0.25	11.6	14.9	-3.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	10	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-4	0	20.5	13.6	6.94	19.0	15.0	4.01
James Johnson	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-2	-4	14.0	14.5	-0.46	16.1	14.9	1.22
Wayne Ellington	54	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-9	10	13.2	15.6	-2.38	15.8	14.8	1.03
Derrick Williams	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	1	-10	15.7	13.3	2.40	14.8	15.8	-1.03
Rodney McGruder	75	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-7	6	14.6	13.0	1.58	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Josh Richardson	57	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-7	6	13.8	15.0	-1.21	16.1	14.4	1.69
Luke Babbitt	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.04	-13	5	-18	15.7	13.0	2.76	14.6	16.1	-1.49
Hassan Whiteside	77	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	13.5	17.5	-4.05	15.0	17.1	-2.12
Goran Dragic	78	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.29	-3	-5	2	13.6	17.3	-3.69	15.0	17.3	-2.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 94, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
SAC 110, IND 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
LAC 85, DAL 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%