NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	86		Excitement	8.5 [203]		MVP	Mike James (MIL): +32.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	4.7 [402]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -26.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.09	-0.03	15	53%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.11,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03	-0.03	0.08	0.01	12	50%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.04	-0.09	0.01	19	63%	0.14	4	-0.20	3	67%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	4	25%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.26	0.00	-0.24	0.02	16	44%	-0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.33,0.32	0.32	0.14	0.18	-0.00	9	83%	0.32	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	3	70%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	54%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.08	-0.08	-0.16	0.07	-0.01	13	33%	0.02	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.09
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19	-0.19	-0.00	-0.19	-0.00	11	54%	-0.16	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.4	28.5	15.4	23.6	2.6	38.0	131.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +21.5%

MIL +22.4%

MIL +14.8%

DET -7.6%

DET -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	18.1	18.1	15.5	108.9	111.2	104.0
season	16.7	16.0		103.5	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.9		107.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.0	18.1	16.6	19.8	18.1
MIL	18.9	21.9	16.1	16.2	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	37	39	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.13	-3	0	-3	18.3	17.9	0.37	17.1	19.2	-2.09
Darvin Ham	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-3	3	0.0	18.1	-18.08	4.0	18.3	-14.33
Anthony Goldwire	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-3	3	0.0	18.1	-18.08	4.0	18.3	-14.33
Lindsey Hunter	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	1	-5	16.6	18.9	-2.31	18.3	18.1	0.22
Chauncey Billups	67	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.36	7	-10	17	18.2	17.2	0.97	19.0	13.1	5.96
Ronald Dupree	9	9	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	4	-11	13.9	18.6	-4.73	12.6	18.9	-6.30
Tayshaun Prince	65	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-5	7	19.4	12.0	7.38	18.6	16.1	2.48
Ben Wallace	63	63	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.44	-3	0	-3	18.1	17.9	0.17	17.8	19.5	-1.75
Rasheed Wallace	58	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.54	0	-3	3	17.9	18.5	-0.61	19.5	14.7	4.85
Richard Hamilton	69	70	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.47	-7	4	-11	17.8	19.7	-1.86	17.7	21.2	-3.49

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	49	49	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.37	7	-4	11	16.5	20.8	-4.34	18.0	18.2	-0.15
Michael Redd	64	64	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	0	3	17.5	20.6	-3.09	17.5	20.5	-3.03
Keith Van Horn	40	39	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	-5	13	17.0	19.3	-2.30	19.4	16.7	2.69
Dan Gadzuric	45	43	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.36	-3	6	-9	18.8	17.3	1.54	15.8	20.8	-4.96
Marcus Fizer	30	29	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-5	13	17.7	18.4	-0.77	17.5	18.4	-0.94
Joe Smith	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.39	-5	8	-13	18.4	17.7	0.77	18.4	17.5	0.94
Zaza Pachulia	29	29	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.06	6	-3	9	17.1	18.8	-1.70	19.6	17.2	2.33
Desmond Mason	62	62	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.37	-5	8	-13	19.5	13.3	6.22	18.7	15.8	2.87
Mo Williams	31	30	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	7	-11	20.8	16.5	4.34	18.2	18.0	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 99, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.46,0.32,0.15,0.33,0.42,1	92.0%
DEN 101, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.22,0.15,0.42,1	91.1%
ORL 93, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.42,1	91.1%