NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	9.3 [97]		MVP	Jason Caffey (GSW): +14.9%
Golden State Warriors	103		Comeback	9.1 [99]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -18.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.01	20	60%	0.12	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.03
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	69%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Cory Alexander	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	10	45%	0.08	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Bryant Stith	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	9	45%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1	0.01	-0.10	0.00	11	52%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,-0.07,-0.19	-0.05	-0.12	0.02	15	39%	-0.16	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.02	9	85%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.07	0.03	6	94%	0.20	2	-0.07	5	80%	-0.03
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	10	64%	0.15	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,0	0.00	-0.09	0.08	-0.00	18	44%	0.14	2	-0.14	7	43%	-0.14
Sam Jacobson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Farmer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	13	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	58%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.08
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	13	48%	0.01	5	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.7	28.4	14.6	25.0	1.8	35.5	133.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +84.2%

DEN -13.3%

GSW +14.6%

DEN -32.3%

DEN -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	15.0	14.2	15.2	103.1	104.0	101.7
season	14.8	14.7		101.5	97.2
opponent	14.7	15.0		105.8	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.1	13.0	16.0	16.3	15.0
GSW	13.7	14.7	13.5	15.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	42	41	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.07	4	-6	10	15.3	14.8	0.55	13.9	14.4	-0.50
Keon Clark	24	23	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-1	0	12.8	15.7	-2.90	15.6	13.8	1.75
Cory Alexander	28	29	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	-1	0	12.4	16.1	-3.73	15.9	13.5	2.37
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	44	45	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-3	4	13.7	16.1	-2.39	15.3	13.3	2.00
Chris Gatling	39	39	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	3	-8	13.7	15.9	-2.12	15.2	13.6	1.54
Raef LaFrentz	56	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.54	2	-4	6	16.2	13.5	2.70	13.9	14.7	-0.77
Bryant Stith	54	54	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	1	-4	16.1	13.7	2.39	13.3	15.3	-2.00
Antonio McDyess	78	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.47	-2	0	-2	15.7	12.2	3.48	13.6	16.6	-3.04
Nick Van Exel	70	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.51	-1	-1	0	16.1	12.4	3.73	13.5	15.9	-2.37
George McCloud	55	58	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.56	-4	2	-6	14.5	15.7	-1.29	14.4	13.9	0.50

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vonteego Cummings	55	53	1.05	-0.55	1.60	0.79	9	-7	16	14.3	14.2	0.07	13.8	16.4	-2.59
John Starks	70	69	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	13.8	15.3	-1.59	16.1	12.4	3.75
Antawn Jamison	82	80	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-3	8	14.1	14.8	-0.65	14.7	16.4	-1.74
Mookie Blaylock	71	71	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	-2	6	14.0	14.7	-0.69	16.2	11.9	4.27
Donyell Marshall	67	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	2	-2	14.1	14.4	-0.27	15.7	13.4	2.34
Erick Dampier	35	35	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	-5	12	14.9	13.8	1.07	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Sam Jacobson	14	14	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	-5	12	13.5	14.3	-0.84	12.6	15.4	-2.86
Tony Farmer	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	4	-6	0.0	14.4	-14.37	0.0	15.0	-15.02
Sam Mack	14	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	5	-8	15.2	14.1	1.16	10.1	15.7	-5.63
Mark Davis	14	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	5	-8	15.6	14.0	1.57	10.1	15.8	-5.70
Adonal Foyle	23	25	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.02	-9	11	-20	15.3	13.9	1.35	15.2	15.0	0.24
Jason Caffey	49	50	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.20	-7	9	-16	14.3	14.2	0.13	15.9	14.1	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.22,0.15,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 96, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.82,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.21,0.33,0.27,1	92.0%
IND 93, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.58,1	91.3%
BOS 87, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.38,0.11,0.23,0.16,1	91.2%