NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	87		Excitement	9.0 [141]		MVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (POR): +47.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	89		Comeback	15.7 [103]		LVP	Zach Randolph (POR): -22.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.07	-0.04	10	61%	0.18	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Tony Allen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	7	57%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0.05	-0.04	0.08	-0.02	15	40%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	10	58%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	10	46%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Jiri Welsch	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	12	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	13	23%	-0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,0.47	0.47	-0.09	0.55	-0.01	16	44%	0.68	4	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	0.00	9	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.00	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Derek Anderson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.08	0.02	14	52%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	7	62%	0.02	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	8	11%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.13	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	4	-0.24	2	100%	0.03
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.33,-0.23	-0.23	-0.16	-0.08	-0.01	25	39%	-0.14	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	36.4	17.8	26.2	3.0	36.1	146.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +24.6%

POR +17.4%

POR +46.7%

BOS -43.0%

POR +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	POR	NBA	BOS	POR	NBA
this game	15.5	15.6	15.5	94.6	95.7	104.0
season	14.4	15.8		104.7	101.2
opponent	15.6	16.0		105.4	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.1	15.4	17.3	15.3	15.5
POR	15.2	15.9	15.5	16.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jiri Welsch	42	42	0.48	-0.98	1.46	0.22	9	-11	20	15.1	15.9	-0.79	14.7	16.4	-1.72
Al Jefferson	31	31	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-6	10	15.3	15.6	-0.32	16.9	15.0	1.90
Marcus Banks	27	27	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.01	1	-3	4	15.6	15.5	0.08	16.4	15.3	1.04
Walter McCarty	24	24	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.01	1	-3	4	14.9	15.7	-0.79	16.2	15.4	0.77
Raef LaFrentz	53	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	5	-12	16.2	14.6	1.58	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Mark Blount	68	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	1	-4	15.7	14.8	0.90	15.2	16.9	-1.73
Paul Pierce	66	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	1	-4	15.6	15.3	0.21	15.3	16.5	-1.20
Gary Payton	65	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.46	-3	1	-4	15.5	15.6	-0.08	15.3	16.4	-1.04
Ricky Davis	55	55	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.41	-7	5	-12	15.6	15.4	0.25	16.0	15.1	0.85
Tony Allen	29	28	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.72	-2	0	-2	14.7	15.9	-1.13	16.5	15.2	1.29

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	43	44	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.57	10	-8	18	15.9	15.4	0.51	15.5	15.5	-0.09
Derek Anderson	59	60	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.61	6	-4	10	15.1	16.6	-1.55	15.3	15.8	-0.43
Darius Miles	45	45	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.60	0	2	-2	15.6	15.6	0.02	15.2	15.8	-0.63
Zach Randolph	74	71	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.50	3	-1	4	15.8	15.2	0.60	15.5	15.6	-0.09
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	77	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	-1	4	15.8	15.0	0.77	15.5	15.5	0.00
Joel Przybilla	3	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	4	-6	16.0	15.6	0.38	12.7	15.6	-2.88
Theo Ratliff	77	76	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.20	3	-1	4	15.6	15.7	-0.14	16.1	12.6	3.48
Sebastian Telfair	48	46	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.10	-6	8	-14	15.8	15.4	0.41	15.2	15.8	-0.65
Ruben Patterson	39	38	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.22	-7	9	-16	15.5	15.8	-0.30	15.7	15.4	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.38,0.11,0.23,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.22,0.15,0.42,1	91.2%
CHA 99, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.46,0.32,0.15,0.33,0.42,1	90.9%
DAL 105, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.23,0.45,0.42,1	90.8%