NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	8.6 [167]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +55.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	97		Comeback	4.3 [470]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -30.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Lee	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25	0.11	0.15	0.02	13	73%	0.28	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	6	92%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.05	0.04	16	64%	0.15	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	12	57%	0.07	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	8	62%	0.10	4	-0.23	5	60%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.3	-0.15	-0.15	-0.00	15	20%	-0.24	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.11,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.56	0.56	0.17	0.38	-0.01	27	67%	0.76	6	-0.20	10	90%	0.05
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	-0.01	20	50%	0.18	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.07
Anderson Varejao	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	10	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tarence Kinsey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	10	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.02	-0.20	0.00	10	40%	-0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	27.5	15.6	25.2	2.7	31.1	128.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +21.1%

CLE +4.2%

CLE +11.2%

CLE +12.8%

CLE +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	16.5	15.5	100.0	105.4	106.4
season	15.3	16.9		107.3	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.9	13.4	14.4	17.3	14.7
CLE	14.3	18.7	16.3	17.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	55	55	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-4	4	14.9	14.4	0.52	15.6	17.7	-2.11
Rashard Lewis	68	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.24	2	-6	8	14.4	15.4	-0.99	17.3	14.2	3.17
Marcin Gortat	16	16	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	2	-8	16.9	14.2	2.65	15.9	16.6	-0.64
Tony Battie	24	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	0	-4	16.0	14.2	1.84	14.2	17.3	-3.17
Anthony Johnson	26	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	2	-8	14.7	14.7	-0.03	14.1	17.5	-3.34
Courtney Lee	60	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-5	6	13.4	17.0	-3.65	17.7	14.2	3.50
Dwight Howard	77	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-6	8	14.2	16.9	-2.65	16.6	15.9	0.64
Rafer Alston	68	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-4	4	14.5	15.2	-0.77	17.5	14.1	3.34
Hedo Turkoglu	71	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	5	-14	15.6	11.7	3.92	16.1	17.6	-1.52

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	62	60	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	-2	8	17.0	15.3	1.68	13.5	16.9	-3.41
LeBron James	82	82	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.40	5	-1	6	16.5	16.1	0.41	14.5	16.0	-1.50
Mo Williams	76	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	-1	6	16.6	15.9	0.64	14.3	16.7	-2.45
Delonte West	71	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.33	3	1	2	16.6	16.0	0.61	13.7	18.0	-4.35
Sasha Pavlovic	32	34	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.09	5	-1	6	13.6	18.0	-4.41	16.7	13.5	3.15
Anderson Varejao	62	62	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.28	-3	7	-10	17.7	13.8	3.91	14.1	15.9	-1.84
Joe Smith	34	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	1	2	15.5	17.1	-1.58	17.4	12.9	4.44
Tarence Kinsey	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	4	-4	0.0	16.6	-16.65	0.0	14.7	-14.68
Wally Szczerbiak	32	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	6	-8	17.0	16.2	0.82	16.8	13.6	3.15
Darnell Jackson	8	9	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	6	-8	15.2	16.6	-1.33	14.1	14.7	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.49,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.33,0.16,1	92.0%
DET 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.42,1	91.1%
ATL 87, TOR 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	90.6%