NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	99		Excitement	7.1 [442]		MVP	J.R. Smith (NOH): +19.4%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	31.5 [60]		LVP	Dan Dickau (NOH): -19.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.06	0.12	-0.01	13	56%	0.19	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	14	59%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Baron Davis	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	17	43%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Lee Nailon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.13,-0.01	0.20	-0.19	0.02	20	73%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Bostjan Nachbar	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Rogers	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	19%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	7	45%	-0.07	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.07
Dan Dickau	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.2	-0.10	-0.10	-0.00	9	35%	-0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	13	78%	0.23	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	0.00	5	90%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.10	0.17	-0.01	13	41%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.09
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	15	54%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.05
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	16	55%	-0.04	0	0.00	12	83%	0.01
Eric Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.6	28.4	15.7	26.5	2.7	35.5	134.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +22.5%

TOR +27.3%

TOR +15.8%

NOH -15.7%

TOR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	TOR	NBA	NOH	TOR	NBA
this game	17.8	14.8	15.5	112.5	114.6	104.0
season	16.5	15.1		97.7	104.8
opponent	15.4	15.7		106.8	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.4	16.2	18.9	18.6	17.8
TOR	15.3	16.5	13.9	13.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	50	50	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.10	9	-12	21	17.6	18.0	-0.33	15.6	13.7	1.93
Baron Davis	50	50	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.09	8	-11	19	18.0	17.5	0.50	15.5	13.8	1.65
Rodney Rogers	35	35	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.08	-2	-1	-1	17.9	17.7	0.22	15.0	14.6	0.37
J.R. Smith	75	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.51	5	-8	13	17.4	20.1	-2.69	14.8	14.8	-0.07
Lee Nailon	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.51	4	-7	11	17.5	19.1	-1.55	14.7	15.3	-0.65
P.J. Brown	67	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.38	-5	2	-7	18.1	16.8	1.28	14.9	14.2	0.68
Bostjan Nachbar	39	40	-0.96	0.46	-1.42	-0.52	-15	12	-27	17.8	17.8	0.07	13.5	15.8	-2.36
Dan Dickau	51	51	-0.96	0.46	-1.43	-0.41	-19	16	-35	18.2	17.3	0.89	14.1	15.7	-1.63

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	50	48	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.40	11	-8	19	15.1	14.3	0.83	18.3	17.2	1.12
Morris Peterson	73	71	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-8	19	14.3	16.9	-2.56	18.1	16.4	1.77
Rafer Alston	66	66	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.45	7	-4	11	14.2	16.3	-2.12	17.6	18.3	-0.71
Matt Bonner	52	50	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.46	6	-3	9	14.7	14.9	-0.20	18.0	17.5	0.55
Chris Bosh	67	68	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.49	4	-1	5	14.5	15.6	-1.14	17.9	17.5	0.37
Aaron Williams	14	12	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.11	4	-1	5	15.1	14.7	0.35	18.2	17.7	0.54
Donyell Marshall	18	20	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	3	-3	15.4	14.6	0.84	17.0	18.0	-0.95
Lamond Murray	13	15	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	4	-5	15.8	14.6	1.25	16.9	18.0	-1.11
Milt Palacio	24	23	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	7	-11	15.7	14.4	1.22	17.7	17.8	-0.06
Loren Woods	6	5	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.03	-6	9	-15	15.5	14.7	0.78	12.2	18.1	-5.92
Rafael Araujo	24	23	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.04	-9	12	-21	15.7	14.4	1.28	18.2	17.6	0.53
Eric Williams	38	39	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.04	-8	11	-19	14.7	14.8	-0.16	17.5	18.0	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.09,0.1,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 104, HOU 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.19,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.58,1	92.1%
CLE 92, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.26,1	90.1%
TOR 94, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.33,0.58,1	89.7%