NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	6.0 [588]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +29.7%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	21.7 [115]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): -22.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Jose Calderon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jarrett Jack	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0	0.10	-0.06	0.04	8	75%	0.01	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	20	43%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Antoine Wright	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	9	39%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13	-0.00	-0.12	0.01	13	65%	0.04	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.18	0.13	0.01	11	88%	0.38	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.17	0.07	5	75%	0.20	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.08
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.02	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.03	18	70%	0.25	6	-0.15	10	90%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	9	39%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.21	-0.04	-0.02	10	10%	-0.11	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.8	31.6	16.7	25.9	2.8	43.2	147.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.1%

MIA +9.4%

MIA +5.5%

TOR -4.8%

TOR -10.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.6	15.3	106.8	110.2	106.0
season	15.0	16.2		109.6	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		102.8	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	14.7	17.0	17.7	16.1
MIA	16.8	16.6	18.1	14.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	23	21	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.01	8	-11	19	14.6	16.7	-2.08	16.6	16.6	0.05
Sonny Weems	34	36	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.00	7	-10	17	16.5	15.9	0.57	18.1	15.5	2.59
Reggie Evans	18	17	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-7	11	15.7	16.3	-0.60	17.9	16.3	1.61
DeMar DeRozan	42	43	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.21	-5	2	-7	16.8	15.6	1.17	16.7	16.5	0.19
Amir Johnson	16	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	5	-13	17.6	15.8	1.73	16.1	16.7	-0.57
Chris Bosh	69	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.49	6	-9	15	15.7	17.6	-1.89	16.7	16.1	0.67
Jarrett Jack	49	46	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.53	-2	-1	-1	16.0	16.3	-0.24	15.7	17.5	-1.76
Andrea Bargnani	73	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	5	-13	16.3	15.2	1.14	16.2	18.2	-1.95
Antoine Wright	69	69	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.43	-9	6	-15	16.6	14.7	1.87	16.3	17.7	-1.41
Jose Calderon	47	49	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.49	-8	5	-13	15.6	16.8	-1.14	16.6	16.6	-0.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	36	38	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.56	5	-2	7	15.6	17.2	-1.59	16.2	16.1	0.11
Udonis Haslem	60	63	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.38	11	-8	19	16.0	17.7	-1.72	16.8	14.5	2.27
Dwyane Wade	77	77	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.33	12	-9	21	16.4	17.6	-1.21	16.6	12.9	3.70
Joel Anthony	68	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	0	3	16.4	17.2	-0.80	16.5	15.1	1.36
Carlos Arroyo	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.67	-7	10	-17	16.7	16.2	0.54	15.8	16.8	-0.94
Jamaal Magloire	9	10	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.11	7	-4	11	16.7	16.6	0.10	17.6	16.0	1.64
Mario Chalmers	39	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.18	1	2	-1	16.6	16.6	0.06	15.7	16.5	-0.82
Quentin Richardson	52	50	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.15	-2	5	-7	17.2	15.6	1.59	16.1	16.2	-0.11
Michael Beasley	39	35	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	0.09	-15	18	-33	17.7	15.7	2.04	14.0	17.6	-3.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 101, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.27,1	91.1%
CLE 99, DET 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.4,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.55,0.58,1	91.1%
PHX 74, DET 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.22,0.42,1	90.5%