NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	99		Excitement	8.5 [200]		MVP	Andre Drummond (DET): +22.1%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	8.7 [79]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -21.9%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04	0.10	-0.04	0.02	10	68%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	57%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Jared Cunningham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.09,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	13	63%	0.15	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.05
Tristan Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.06,-0.04	0.10	-0.18	-0.04	21	64%	0.17	4	-0.21	5	80%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.08	-0.01	13	54%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Timofey Mozgov	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.08	0.00	6	62%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	0.00	15	64%	0.32	3	-0.10	9	56%	-0.05
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.04	0.02	10	83%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	12	47%	0.10	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	11	54%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	21%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.26,-0.18,-0.31,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.16	0.02	18	52%	0.03	5	-0.25	8	100%	0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	27.8	15.8	28.6	1.6	42.5	141.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE -13.7%

DET +35.3%

DET +20.2%

DET +7.1%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	14.3	14.5	14.9	98.0	105.1	105.1
season	15.8	15.0		110.3	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		105.0	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.2	14.5	13.3	16.2	14.3
DET	15.7	16.2	14.3	12.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	31	31	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.02	8	-13	21	15.4	13.8	1.62	16.7	13.5	3.26
Jared Cunningham	6	5	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.06	5	-10	15	10.0	14.6	-4.57	19.8	14.2	5.58
James Jones	28	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-2	-1	14.3	14.3	-0.02	16.2	13.9	2.27
Tristan Thompson	44	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-2	-1	14.2	14.4	-0.20	14.9	14.2	0.74
Matthew Dellavedova	38	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-2	-1	15.8	13.4	2.39	15.9	13.7	2.26
Kevin Love	72	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.28	0	-5	5	14.3	14.2	0.08	14.1	15.6	-1.51
Mo Williams	65	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-1	-3	13.5	15.8	-2.34	13.4	16.5	-3.06
Timofey Mozgov	58	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	-1	-3	14.4	14.2	0.15	14.0	15.3	-1.30
LeBron James	85	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.33	-6	1	-7	14.3	14.1	0.20	14.0	16.9	-2.83
J.R. Smith	78	77	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.32	-15	10	-25	14.1	14.9	-0.80	14.0	16.4	-2.39

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	82	84	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.36	17	-12	29	13.9	17.2	-3.30	14.1	15.4	-1.34
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	80	82	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-8	21	14.1	16.3	-2.24	13.9	16.0	-2.10
Reggie Jackson	73	76	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.32	15	-10	25	13.5	17.3	-3.85	14.2	14.5	-0.24
Ersan Ilyasova	63	66	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-6	17	13.2	16.7	-3.53	13.5	15.8	-2.30
Marcus Morris	77	78	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-8	21	13.9	16.8	-2.92	14.2	14.6	-0.40
Reggie Bullock	10	11	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.03	-8	13	-21	16.3	14.3	2.00	15.6	14.1	1.50
Anthony Tolliver	36	35	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	11	-17	16.7	13.2	3.53	15.8	13.5	2.30
Spencer Dinwiddie	26	25	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.03	-10	15	-25	17.3	13.5	3.85	14.5	14.2	0.24
Stanley Johnson	31	31	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.04	-8	13	-21	16.6	13.5	3.12	15.1	13.9	1.15
Aron Baynes	17	17	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.01	-12	17	-29	17.2	13.9	3.30	15.4	14.1	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.5,0.4,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 81, UTA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.39,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.58,1	92.4%
LAL 86, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.77,0.58,1	91.8%
UTA 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	91.6%