NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	9.9 [77]		MVP	Lamond Murray (TOR): +17.6%
New Jersey Nets	88		Comeback	4.3 [470]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (NJN): -59.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamond Murray	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	7	93%	0.27	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.01	11	50%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	11	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Vince Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	14	61%	0.13	3	-0.15	8	75%	0.05
Loren Woods	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	8%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28	-0.12	-0.16	-0.01	11	31%	-0.22	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.12	-0.00	16	59%	0.20	2	-0.07	12	83%	0.10
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	-0.00	4	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	9	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	10	30%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	12	40%	-0.11	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	13	23%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.15,-0.6	-0.60	-0.09	-0.51	0.00	12	40%	-0.39	3	-0.21	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	25.8	15.5	24.5	2.4	34.6	129.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -29.3%

TOR -3.3%

NJN +93.3%

TOR -8.8%

TOR -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NJN	NBA	TOR	NJN	NBA
this game	14.8	15.7	15.5	91.5	92.6	104.0
season	15.1	16.0		104.8	99.2
opponent	15.6	15.4		101.6	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.0	15.0	14.1	16.5	14.8
NJN	14.8	13.2	15.9	19.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	27	28	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.11	2	-4	6	15.0	14.7	0.31	16.7	15.2	1.51
Morris Peterson	27	29	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-6	10	14.7	14.9	-0.11	15.8	15.6	0.20
Lamond Murray	31	33	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-4	6	15.3	14.6	0.75	14.8	16.1	-1.33
Loren Woods	32	33	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-2	2	15.8	14.3	1.51	14.4	16.3	-1.98
Milt Palacio	23	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.10	1	-3	4	14.0	15.1	-1.08	18.8	14.6	4.19
Jalen Rose	63	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-2	2	15.1	14.2	0.89	14.7	17.4	-2.69
Donyell Marshall	62	62	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	14.3	15.8	-1.51	16.3	14.4	1.98
Vince Carter	61	60	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.47	-5	3	-8	14.6	15.3	-0.70	15.7	15.5	0.22
Rafer Alston	77	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.47	-6	4	-10	14.8	14.7	0.14	15.5	16.4	-0.85
Chris Bosh	67	66	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.50	-6	4	-10	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.4	16.1	-0.70

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	53	54	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.50	11	-9	20	14.4	17.2	-2.84	15.3	14.2	1.08
Richard Jefferson	81	81	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.46	5	-3	8	15.2	18.2	-3.00	15.0	13.6	1.40
Eric Williams	69	70	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	-2	6	15.1	17.0	-1.86	14.7	15.2	-0.47
Jason Collins	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.25	5	-3	8	14.8	17.1	-2.26	15.4	13.8	1.60
Jacque Vaughn	20	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	1	0	16.8	15.3	1.52	14.8	14.8	0.04
Aaron Williams	2	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	4	-6	18.0	15.6	2.40	4.0	14.9	-10.94
Rodney Buford	30	28	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	5	-8	18.1	14.5	3.53	14.7	14.9	-0.20
Travis Best	52	51	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.18	-10	12	-22	16.0	15.2	0.85	14.3	15.4	-1.10
Nenad Krstic	34	33	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.00	-6	8	-14	16.8	15.0	1.78	14.3	15.1	-0.80
Brian Scalabrine	33	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.10	-3	5	-8	18.0	14.4	3.64	14.8	14.8	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 94, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.72,1	92.9%
TOR 109, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.37,1	91.6%
DEN 117, DAL 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.22,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.18,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.73,1	91.5%