NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	109		Excitement	8.6 [193]		MVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): +35.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Comeback	6.9 [146]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -17.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.26	0.05	0.20	-0.00	25	53%	0.31	2	-0.06	7	71%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25	0.16	0.11	0.01	7	100%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
DeMarre Carroll	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.19	0.07	0.01	9	106%	0.29	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.08	0.00	9	61%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	2	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.04
Norman Powell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.17	-0.02	-0.16	-0.01	19	47%	-0.10	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.19	0.02	14	71%	0.41	1	-0.06	13	100%	0.09
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.14	0.01	13	69%	0.28	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.09
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.21	0.21	-0.00	0.22	0.00	6	42%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.10	0.04	19	66%	0.38	3	-0.19	9	89%	0.05
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cole Aldrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	27.2	14.8	25.1	2.4	37.3	134.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +0.8%

MIN +34.1%

MIN +13.7%

MIN +3.5%

TOR -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIN	NBA	TOR	MIN	NBA
this game	16.8	14.7	14.8	119.8	121.7	107.7
season	15.2	15.3		110.0	109.3
opponent	14.7	14.9		110.2	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	20.2	14.2	17.9	15.7	16.8
MIN	16.0	14.6	13.4	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	28	29	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.04	3	-6	9	17.0	16.7	0.35	16.1	14.1	2.06
Jared Sullinger	12	11	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.06	-1	-2	1	17.2	16.7	0.47	17.8	14.3	3.51
Terrence Ross	28	27	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-3	3	15.7	17.2	-1.51	15.1	14.6	0.54
Cory Joseph	44	45	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-4	5	15.5	17.9	-2.39	15.0	14.5	0.49
Jonas Valanciunas	50	51	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-7	11	16.8	16.7	0.14	14.1	15.5	-1.33
Lucas Nogueira	44	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.33	5	-8	13	15.2	18.2	-2.96	13.9	15.5	-1.59
Pascal Siakam	34	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	6	-15	18.5	15.7	2.83	15.2	14.4	0.86
DeMar DeRozan	70	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	-1	-1	17.3	14.9	2.47	14.2	16.5	-2.26
DeMarre Carroll	64	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	17.1	15.9	1.18	14.4	15.6	-1.18
Norman Powell	12	12	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	4	-11	17.6	16.6	0.95	13.8	14.9	-1.03
Kyle Lowry	69	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.46	-8	5	-13	16.8	16.6	0.22	15.0	13.8	1.20

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl-Anthony Towns	71	70	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.49	4	-1	5	14.3	16.2	-1.89	16.9	16.4	0.49
Lance Stephenson	39	41	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	-2	7	15.0	14.5	0.52	15.0	18.2	-3.11
Andrew Wiggins	71	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	1	1	14.2	16.5	-2.26	17.3	14.9	2.47
Tyus Jones	53	52	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	2	-1	15.0	14.3	0.69	16.2	17.6	-1.41
Shabazz Muhammad	49	50	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	2	-1	15.0	14.4	0.54	16.2	17.4	-1.15
Ricky Rubio	39	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	-1	5	14.3	15.0	-0.69	17.4	16.3	1.10
Brandon Rush	39	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	-1	5	14.4	15.0	-0.64	18.0	16.0	1.97
Cole Aldrich	9	10	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	2	-1	15.0	14.7	0.30	14.5	17.0	-2.54
Nemanja Bjelica	29	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.08	-1	4	-5	15.9	14.2	1.76	16.3	17.0	-0.71
Gorgui Dieng	61	58	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.08	-6	9	-15	15.1	14.1	1.00	17.6	15.3	2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.37,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 100, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.36,0.21,0.43,0.47,1	92.1%
MIN 107, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.41,1	91.9%
TOR 86, NJN 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.58,1	91.6%