NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	107		Excitement	7.7 [287]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +25.6%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	18.8 [53]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -32.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.07	0.01	16	65%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.03	6	79%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Mike Wilks	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gary Trent	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	59%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	16	47%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Marc Jackson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	22%	-0.13	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.06
Kevin Garnett	-0.32	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.08,-0.32	-0.01	-0.32	-0.01	20	55%	-0.11	3	-0.21	7	86%	-0.09

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.17,0.26	0.26	0.02	0.23	-0.01	21	59%	0.37	3	-0.11	9	78%	0.08
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	8	80%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Shawn Kemp	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	52%	0.01	1	-0.04	3	0%	-0.06
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.08	-0.16	0.03	13	64%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.6	33.2	19.4	26.2	3.6	40.7	152.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.6%

ORL +24.8%

MIN -2.3%

ORL +3.7%

MIN -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	14.9	15.5	116.3	118.3	101.6
season	14.9	14.6		104.0	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.9	14.9	16.5	17.7	16.2
ORL	14.1	16.4	15.5	13.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	39	39	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.14	4	-7	11	16.0	16.4	-0.42	15.3	14.6	0.70
Marc Jackson	36	36	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.07	2	-5	7	16.4	16.1	0.29	16.6	13.8	2.83
Mike Wilks	16	16	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-6	9	14.1	16.7	-2.56	16.3	14.6	1.70
Gary Trent	23	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	1	-5	16.0	16.3	-0.38	16.1	14.5	1.59
Kevin Garnett	79	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-3	3	16.3	16.1	0.19	14.4	17.9	-3.56
Joe Smith	56	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.46	-3	0	-3	16.1	16.4	-0.29	13.8	16.6	-2.83
Anthony Peeler	69	70	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.40	-7	4	-11	15.9	17.3	-1.42	14.6	15.7	-1.11
Troy Hudson	76	77	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.41	-8	5	-13	16.7	14.1	2.56	14.6	16.3	-1.70
Wally Szczerbiak	66	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.60	-2	-1	-1	16.8	14.8	2.05	15.2	14.2	0.93

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordan Giricek	72	71	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.53	5	-2	7	14.4	16.5	-2.09	16.4	15.7	0.68
Tracy McGrady	78	78	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-3	9	14.3	17.9	-3.61	16.5	14.9	1.55
Shawn Kemp	56	56	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	1	1	15.2	14.5	0.69	15.9	16.7	-0.79
Pat Garrity	64	64	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	-2	7	14.9	14.8	0.11	17.0	14.4	2.65
Darrell Armstrong	59	58	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	1	1	15.1	14.5	0.59	15.6	17.4	-1.81
Andrew DeClercq	32	30	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	-2	7	14.0	15.4	-1.42	16.7	16.0	0.63
Jacque Vaughn	42	41	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	1	1	14.8	15.0	-0.17	16.7	15.9	0.80
Olumide Oyedeji	0	2	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	4	-5	0.0	14.9	-14.90	23.5	16.1	7.42
Chris Whitney	20	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.11	2	1	1	15.9	14.6	1.27	15.5	16.4	-0.90
Jeryl Sasser	17	16	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.03	-5	8	-13	17.8	14.2	3.57	15.2	16.4	-1.20
Steven Hunter	23	23	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.06	-8	11	-19	16.7	14.3	2.44	15.3	16.6	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 74, PHX 77	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.26,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.27,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.36,0.43,0.58,1	92.3%
TOR 109, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.37,1	91.9%
POR 86, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.11,0.23,0.27,1	91.8%