NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	100		Excitement	8.9 [148]		MVP	Jason Kapono (CHA): +12.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	12.2 [154]		LVP	Steven Smith (CHA): -45.1%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	9	61%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	8	79%	0.18	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.05
Primoz Brezec	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Bernard Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.08
Eddie House	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.02	16	47%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	14	43%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.08	0.01	11	36%	-0.08	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.45	-0.08	-0.38	-0.00	10	32%	-0.43	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.12	0.12	0.15	-0.02	0.01	12	77%	0.12	0	0.00	16	94%	0.15
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	64%	0.12	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	16	59%	0.04	2	-0.07	12	92%	0.05
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	0.01	-0.00	11	33%	0.00	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.06
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	3	8%	-0.15	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.09
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	0.04	-0.20	0.05	18	57%	-0.14	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.4	27.7	16.5	25.9	1.8	45.3	145.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +12.7%

MIL +42.1%

MIL +23.2%

CHA -27.0%

CHA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	15.5	105.3	109.7	104.0
season	15.5	16.0		99.0	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.1		107.4	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.0	15.0	17.9	15.8	15.7
MIL	16.0	15.6	13.4	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jahidi White	34	32	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.05	11	-13	24	16.4	15.3	1.06	16.4	14.2	2.26
Bernard Robinson	6	4	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.15	-3	1	-4	8.7	16.1	-7.48	20.5	14.7	5.79
Eddie House	54	54	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-1	0	15.9	15.4	0.50	14.8	15.2	-0.43
Jason Kapono	37	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-3	4	17.1	14.8	2.35	14.7	15.1	-0.43
Emeka Okafor	81	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	2	-6	15.4	17.0	-1.56	15.1	14.0	1.10
Steven Smith	61	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.55	5	-7	12	15.3	16.3	-1.01	15.4	14.2	1.18
Gerald Wallace	68	66	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.55	0	-2	2	14.5	18.7	-4.23	15.4	13.8	1.61
Jason Hart	67	66	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.43	-10	8	-18	15.9	15.1	0.75	14.2	16.9	-2.72
Primoz Brezec	67	68	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.52	-9	7	-16	16.6	13.5	3.13	14.0	17.6	-3.61

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	36	33	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.51	5	-3	8	14.1	15.5	-1.33	14.4	16.4	-1.96
Mo Williams	66	67	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.45	7	-5	12	14.9	15.0	-0.06	15.1	17.0	-1.88
Michael Redd	84	85	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	-2	6	14.5	18.8	-4.23	15.9	13.7	2.21
Desmond Mason	65	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-2	6	15.4	14.0	1.32	15.7	15.6	0.17
Joe Smith	61	63	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	1	0	14.7	15.4	-0.64	16.3	14.5	1.82
Keith Van Horn	77	80	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.28	-1	3	-4	14.9	15.4	-0.50	15.4	16.9	-1.42
Toni Kukoc	23	23	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.08	1	1	0	15.6	14.7	0.87	15.6	15.7	-0.09
Erick Strickland	30	32	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.07	-4	6	-10	15.6	14.6	1.00	16.2	15.4	0.77
Daniel Santiago	23	24	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.01	-7	9	-16	16.0	14.6	1.39	16.5	15.4	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.36,0.21,0.43,0.47,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 109, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.33,0.29,0.16,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.42,1	92.4%
TOR 109, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.37,1	92.1%
ORL 109, MIL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.42,1	92.0%