NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	114		Excitement	10.3 [45]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (CHI): +39.9%
Toronto Raptors	108		Comeback	4.9 [123]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -38.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.40	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.17,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.4	0.15	0.27	0.02	34	63%	0.48	3	-0.08	11	73%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38	0.05	0.32	-0.02	16	66%	0.46	3	-0.08	6	50%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Linton Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Fizer	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	7	35%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	9	63%	-0.08	2	-0.08	9	56%	-0.09
Kirk Hinrich	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	11	23%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.11	0.00	3	12%	-0.10	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.17	-0.08	0.17	-0.07	10	27%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	16	59%	0.17	3	-0.14	5	80%	0.02
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	24	56%	0.14	4	-0.15	9	89%	0.04
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.24,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.11	-0.27	0.00	27	48%	-0.21	5	-0.17	9	89%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.0	2.7	27.5	16.6	28.2	1.7	38.0	2.4	12.6	156.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	2.0	17.4	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +44.6%

TOR -13.3%

CHI +15.8%

CHI +2.1%

CHI +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	13.3	14.6	15.7	99.1	95.6	100.5
season	15.2	16.8		94.6	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		98.4	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	14.1	13.0	14.0	12.4	12.7	13.3
TOR	15.3	15.8	12.2	14.8	16.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Jefferies	53	50	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.39	12	-6	18	12.5	14.0	-1.60	14.1	15.0	-0.81
Eddy Curry	92	93	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.34	12	-6	18	13.4	13.1	0.23	14.9	12.9	2.00
Jamal Crawford	110	108	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.25	12	-6	18	13.5	9.6	3.88	14.6	15.2	-0.64
Antonio Davis	106	104	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.34	7	-1	8	13.1	16.1	-3.04	14.3	18.3	-4.06
Kirk Hinrich	55	54	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-4	14	13.8	12.8	0.97	15.3	13.9	1.38
Jannero Pargo	33	33	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	8	-10	13.6	13.2	0.37	15.1	14.4	0.66
Marcus Fizer	45	42	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.05	-4	10	-14	13.4	13.3	0.11	15.0	14.3	0.69
Linton Johnson	33	34	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.02	-8	14	-22	13.1	13.4	-0.31	14.6	14.6	0.04
Ronald Dupree	21	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.03	-13	19	-32	15.2	12.9	2.36	12.1	15.2	-3.07

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roger Mason Jr.	16	18	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.07	4	-10	14	18.4	14.0	4.41	15.2	13.0	2.26
Vince Carter	91	91	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.10	9	-15	24	14.3	15.8	-1.47	13.2	13.8	-0.60
Corie Blount	39	39	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-8	10	15.2	14.3	0.90	15.0	12.4	2.59
Chris Bosh	67	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	1	-8	14.1	15.3	-1.27	13.2	13.4	-0.18
Donyell Marshall	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.39	-4	-2	-2	14.7	13.6	1.06	13.0	16.3	-3.37
Michael Curry	52	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	3	-12	15.7	13.7	1.97	13.2	13.4	-0.17
Morris Peterson	94	94	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.38	-10	4	-14	13.9	17.9	-3.97	13.1	14.3	-1.25
Jalen Rose	104	106	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.27	-15	9	-24	14.3	17.4	-3.10	13.1	15.8	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.46,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.07,0.15,0.54,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 111, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.73,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.04,0.54,0.32,0.05,0.01,0,0	89.2%
DAL 98, HOU 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.17,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.32,0.08,0	88.5%
IND 108, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.7,0.47,0.47,0.19,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.03,0,0	88.3%