NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	7.7 [302]		MVP	Brandon Bass (ORL): +17.1%
Charlotte Bobcats	102		Comeback	7.3 [130]		LVP	Dante Cunningham (CHA): -17.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.11	-0.01	10	70%	0.29	4	-0.12	7	100%	0.07
Gilbert Arenas	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	14	83%	0.30	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.24,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.03	12	75%	0.31	2	-0.25	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	60%	0.08	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.00
Earl Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.05	-0.03	0.03	13	61%	0.12	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.03	22	63%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.05
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	74%	0.21	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
DJ White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.09	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.02
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.17	0.02	-0.05	14	21%	-0.06	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.13	-0.00	20	38%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.5	1.8	30.4	15.7	24.1	2.5	35.4	2.4	9.2	146.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +74.0%

ORL +3.5%

ORL +3.3%

CHA -27.7%

CHA -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	16.1	18.1	15.5	119.4	109.7	105.7
season	15.2	16.2		106.3	102.3
opponent	15.5	16.2		106.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	14.8	16.2	16.3	17.4	15.3	16.1
CHA	15.8	19.8	18.0	18.6	20.2	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-6	21	16.0	16.3	-0.39	18.2	18.1	0.07
Dwight Howard	72	71	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.18	12	-3	15	15.5	18.0	-2.45	17.9	19.0	-1.13
Brandon Bass	66	67	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	0	9	16.2	15.7	0.55	17.9	18.7	-0.82
Gilbert Arenas	81	81	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.22	6	3	3	16.1	16.0	0.06	17.5	22.6	-5.10
Chris Duhon	26	26	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	3	3	17.6	15.4	2.17	18.3	18.1	0.29
Jameer Nelson	67	67	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	6	-3	15.4	17.6	-2.17	18.1	18.3	-0.29
Ryan Anderson	33	34	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	5	-1	16.5	15.8	0.67	17.8	18.3	-0.54
Quentin Richardson	35	35	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	12	-15	16.2	15.9	0.28	19.6	17.2	2.39
Earl Clark	15	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	16	-23	17.1	15.9	1.21	21.4	17.6	3.87

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dominic McGuire	14	14	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.04	6	-15	21	20.2	17.8	2.44	15.9	16.1	-0.15
Garrett Temple	26	26	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-9	9	19.9	17.5	2.42	16.5	15.9	0.57
DJ White	34	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-15	21	18.2	18.1	0.15	17.7	15.1	2.56
Matt Carroll	15	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-8	7	20.7	17.7	3.01	17.7	15.8	1.95
Boris Diaw	75	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	3	-15	18.2	18.0	0.17	15.8	16.9	-1.06
Gerald Henderson	79	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	-1	-7	17.8	20.2	-2.44	15.7	17.9	-2.21
D.J. Augustin	67	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	0	-9	17.5	19.9	-2.42	15.9	16.5	-0.57
Kwame Brown	75	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.17	-14	5	-19	18.1	18.4	-0.31	15.7	17.4	-1.66
Dante Cunningham	80	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.22	-13	4	-17	17.6	21.2	-3.50	15.9	17.0	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.73,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.04,0.54,0.32,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 114, TOR 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.46,0.54,0.39,0.28,0.07,0.15,0.54,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.04,0	89.2%
CHA 95, WAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.16,0.13,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.03,0,0	88.2%
IND 108, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.7,0.47,0.47,0.19,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.03,0,0	88.2%