NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	80		Excitement	5.7 [658]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +10.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	83		Comeback	1.3 [1005]		LVP	Lamond Murray (TOR): -18.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11	0.14	-0.02	0.02	23	62%	0.11	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Chris Bosh	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	5	77%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	56%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Alvin Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	6	6%	-0.19	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.01	-0.03	10	67%	0.10	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Qyntel Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	11	48%	0.06	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	18	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	15	32%	-0.14	2	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.7	1.7	27.2	14.8	22.7	1.8	33.2	121.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +31.6%

TOR -9.6%

POR +32.4%

TOR -10.3%

POR +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	POR	NBA	TOR	POR	NBA
this game	18.6	18.8	15.7	103.9	107.8	100.5
season	16.8	17.1		94.8	101.5
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.2	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	21.6	17.9	18.4	16.9	18.6
POR	17.5	17.2	20.6	19.9	18.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-3	3	18.3	18.7	-0.42	20.7	18.1	2.61
Michael Curry	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.13	-1	-2	1	19.6	17.9	1.65	19.6	18.1	1.58
Lamond Murray	25	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	2	-7	19.6	18.2	1.37	16.7	19.6	-2.95
Morris Peterson	35	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-1	-1	17.3	19.8	-2.53	18.9	18.7	0.26
Antonio Davis	58	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-3	3	18.9	17.7	1.19	19.2	17.4	1.80
Vince Carter	61	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.41	2	-5	7	18.3	19.9	-1.56	19.0	17.9	1.11
Jerome Williams	59	59	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-2	1	17.5	22.4	-4.90	19.5	16.3	3.25
Chris Bosh	47	47	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-2	1	19.3	17.6	1.64	17.9	20.1	-2.13
Milt Palacio	56	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	18.7	18.3	0.42	18.1	20.7	-2.61

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	71	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	2	-1	18.8	18.2	0.65	18.1	25.2	-7.08
Bonzi Wells	51	50	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	3	-3	19.0	18.3	0.63	19.5	17.0	2.52
Damon Stoudamire	54	54	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	2	-1	19.2	17.7	1.46	17.6	21.2	-3.62
Qyntel Woods	38	39	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	-5	13	17.7	19.8	-2.03	20.0	17.2	2.82
Jeff McInnis	36	38	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	-3	9	17.7	19.7	-1.96	18.4	18.8	-0.37
Vladimir Stepania	17	17	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	-4	11	18.0	19.0	-0.98	19.9	18.3	1.60
Rasheed Wallace	63	63	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.35	-4	7	-11	19.1	17.4	1.72	18.3	20.2	-1.93
Dale Davis	55	53	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	7	-11	19.3	17.3	2.03	18.8	18.3	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.68,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.96,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 90, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	94.5%
CLE 84, ATL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.3%
ATL 88, GSW 92	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	94.2%