NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	7.3 [352]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (CHI): +22.2%
New Orleans Hornets	106		Comeback	1.9 [350]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -21.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.09	0.00	13	81%	0.30	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.04	0.01	15	81%	0.26	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.05
Jamal Crawford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	9	61%	0.10	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Kendall Gill	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	57%	0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Eddie Robinson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.22	-0.17	-0.07	-0.02	3	70%	0.03	9	-0.25	4	50%	-0.04

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.01	5	107%	0.20	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	13	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	15	58%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.07	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.04,-0.14	-0.14	0.02	-0.19	-0.03	21	64%	0.00	5	-0.14	13	77%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	1.8	30.2	15.7	27.2	2.0	41.2	145.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +58.1%

CHI +14.2%

CHI +5.5%

NOH -26.6%

NOH -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOH	NBA	CHI	NOH	NBA
this game	14.5	15.0	15.7	111.2	109.3	100.5
season	15.2	16.0		94.6	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.4	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	14.7	12.8	16.7	14.5
NOH	14.8	13.5	16.6	15.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	60	59	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.36	15	-12	27	14.2	15.0	-0.78	15.1	14.9	0.25
Jamal Crawford	57	56	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.35	14	-11	25	14.7	14.3	0.39	15.4	14.5	0.84
Donyell Marshall	90	89	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.45	-1	4	-5	14.4	15.5	-1.07	14.8	17.7	-2.97
Corie Blount	31	30	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	-6	15	13.8	14.8	-1.00	14.2	15.4	-1.14
Kirk Hinrich	57	56	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.28	-5	8	-13	14.2	15.0	-0.74	14.5	15.8	-1.27
Eddy Curry	67	67	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.26	-6	9	-15	14.8	13.8	1.00	15.4	14.2	1.14
Lonny Baxter	8	8	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	-1	5	15.5	14.4	1.07	17.7	14.8	2.97
Linton Johnson	8	8	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	-1	5	15.5	14.4	1.07	17.7	14.8	2.97
Kendall Gill	59	58	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.31	-10	13	-23	14.9	13.9	0.95	15.4	14.5	0.85
Eddie Robinson	54	55	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.04	-8	11	-19	14.2	14.9	-0.71	14.3	16.0	-1.64

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	64	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-2	1	15.0	15.1	-0.06	13.8	15.9	-2.18
Robert Traylor	17	15	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	1	-5	17.1	14.6	2.47	15.1	14.4	0.72
David Wesley	75	75	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.37	8	-11	19	14.9	15.4	-0.44	14.7	13.8	0.96
David West	9	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	1	-5	16.4	14.9	1.57	12.0	14.8	-2.81
P.J. Brown	74	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.40	7	-10	17	14.6	16.5	-1.91	15.0	12.9	2.16
Jamaal Magloire	66	67	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-6	9	14.6	15.9	-1.30	14.6	14.4	0.19
Steven Smith	15	15	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	5	-13	15.6	14.9	0.69	15.0	14.4	0.57
Sean Rooks	28	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	5	-13	15.5	14.8	0.67	13.6	14.9	-1.28
Baron Davis	91	93	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	-2	1	15.0	14.8	0.20	14.7	10.4	4.34
Darrell Armstrong	46	47	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	4	-11	15.0	15.0	-0.04	14.6	14.5	0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.39,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.45,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 113, DEN 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.12,0.05,0.11,0.03,0.14,0.09,0	92.9%
MEM 99, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.06,0,0	92.8%
TOR 110, ORL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.08,0	92.5%