NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	113		Excitement	7.0 [425]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +35.5%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	1.8 [215]		LVP	Paul Millsap (UTA): -10.1%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.30	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.3	0.17	0.14	0.01	20	64%	0.30	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Raja Bell	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.07	0.02	11	71%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.06
CJ Miles	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	11	59%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	7	57%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Evans	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	23	50%	0.14	4	-0.14	6	100%	0.03
Francisco Elson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Price	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyrylo Fesenko	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.24	0.12	0.01	12	87%	0.43	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	21	52%	0.10	4	-0.09	18	94%	0.10
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.02	11	54%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	12	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	36%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.8	28.1	18.5	30.3	2.8	40.2	151.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +55.4%

DEN -14.3%

UTA +9.9%

DEN -1.7%

UTA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.9	13.4	15.5	114.1	109.3	105.7
season	15.9	14.3		106.4	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.1	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.5	16.5	14.2	16.8	15.9
DEN	12.3	14.8	13.0	13.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	66	66	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.34	7	0	7	16.2	15.4	0.85	13.9	12.4	1.49
Raja Bell	84	81	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.33	6	1	5	16.1	14.9	1.25	13.7	12.2	1.49
Earl Watson	48	48	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.21	5	2	3	15.9	15.9	-0.02	12.9	14.0	-1.06
Paul Millsap	75	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	4	-1	15.9	16.0	-0.15	13.7	12.5	1.18
Deron Williams	85	82	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.26	1	6	-5	15.9	15.9	0.00	13.3	14.3	-0.99
Francisco Elson	22	21	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	1	5	14.5	16.4	-1.90	11.8	13.9	-2.07
CJ Miles	53	52	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.08	3	4	-1	15.4	16.5	-1.07	13.2	13.7	-0.56
Jeremy Evans	24	24	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	3	1	16.0	15.9	0.15	12.5	13.7	-1.18
Gordon Hayward	18	19	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	5	-3	16.8	15.7	1.10	13.8	13.3	0.51
Ronnie Price	9	9	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	3	1	15.3	16.0	-0.66	16.1	13.2	2.95
Kyrylo Fesenko	11	10	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.05	-6	13	-19	17.2	15.8	1.41	13.7	13.4	0.30

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	56	57	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-9	11	13.4	13.5	-0.18	16.4	15.3	1.12
J.R. Smith	43	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-5	3	12.9	13.9	-0.99	15.6	16.2	-0.61
Al Harrington	39	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	12.5	14.1	-1.54	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Nene	69	70	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.25	1	-8	9	13.9	12.2	1.71	16.5	14.6	1.85
Chris Andersen	25	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	0	-7	12.9	13.6	-0.75	14.2	16.5	-2.30
Chauncey Billups	70	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.18	-2	-5	3	13.3	13.8	-0.48	15.8	16.3	-0.49
Arron Afflalo	72	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	13.7	12.6	1.07	16.4	14.5	1.89
Carmelo Anthony	79	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-1	-5	13.5	12.9	0.60	15.9	16.1	-0.15
Ty Lawson	32	32	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.11	-13	6	-19	14.2	13.1	1.13	16.1	15.8	0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.12,0.05,0.11,0.03,0.14,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 91, NJN 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	94.3%
DEN 105, ATL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.04,0	94.1%
MIN 95, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.52,0.38,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	94.0%