NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	110		Excitement	7.8 [281]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (ORL): +54.1%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	1.4 [116]		LVP	Vince Carter (ORL): -13.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sonny Weems	0.33	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.33	0.05	0.28	0.00	9	70%	0.39	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.31	0.16	0.16	0.02	13	68%	0.34	1	-0.04	12	83%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Julian Wright	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	7	47%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.04	-0.01	23	54%	0.10	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Jose Calderon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.01	9	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	8	65%	0.05	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Joey Dorsey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Reggie Evans	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.3,0.54	0.54	0.25	0.32	0.04	11	109%	0.59	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.05	0.02	15	66%	0.11	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	14	56%	0.09	4	-0.15	17	41%	-0.19
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	6	57%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	11	40%	-0.10	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	28.5	17.0	32.0	2.7	48.3	159.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +11.6%

TOR +21.6%

TOR +11.2%

TOR +0.1%

TOR +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.0	13.2	15.5	111.1	108.2	105.7
season	15.1	15.2		104.7	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.5		101.1	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.6	13.7	17.0	18.0	16.0
ORL	15.0	14.0	10.0	14.0	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	78	79	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.45	8	-4	12	16.6	14.0	2.56	13.4	12.6	0.78
Jose Calderon	49	48	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.30	12	-8	20	15.1	16.9	-1.82	12.1	14.2	-2.07
DeMar DeRozan	82	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	1	2	16.4	14.4	1.94	13.3	12.5	0.82
Amir Johnson	34	35	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	-6	16	15.7	16.2	-0.48	12.2	13.8	-1.56
Julian Wright	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	-5	14	16.4	15.7	0.69	12.7	13.8	-1.17
Jarrett Jack	52	53	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.35	-4	8	-12	16.3	15.7	0.57	13.5	12.8	0.71
Joey Dorsey	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	15.0	16.2	-1.22	12.5	13.3	-0.87
Sonny Weems	67	65	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	11	-18	15.4	17.4	-2.00	13.5	12.6	0.90
Reggie Evans	66	62	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.10	-13	17	-30	16.2	15.6	0.67	14.3	11.4	2.87

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	53	55	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.10	4	-8	12	13.3	13.1	0.25	15.2	17.1	-1.93
Marcin Gortat	8	9	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-5	6	16.5	12.9	3.59	13.1	16.3	-3.20
Quentin Richardson	38	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-1	-2	13.3	13.1	0.18	15.9	16.1	-0.25
Vince Carter	63	62	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-10	16	13.2	13.2	-0.04	17.0	14.3	2.75
Chris Duhon	25	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	1	-6	13.4	13.1	0.32	14.6	16.5	-1.95
Jameer Nelson	72	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-5	6	13.3	12.9	0.38	16.5	14.6	1.95
JJ Redick	35	37	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	6	-16	13.2	13.2	0.04	14.3	17.0	-2.75
Mickael Pietrus	61	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.38	-1	-3	2	12.9	13.7	-0.76	16.1	15.9	0.25
Dwight Howard	90	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	1	-6	12.9	16.5	-3.59	16.3	13.1	3.20
Brandon Bass	45	44	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.49	-8	4	-12	13.1	13.3	-0.25	17.1	15.2	1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 101, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	93.7%
NYK 100, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.28,0.41,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.04,0,0	93.6%
ATL 106, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.04,0	93.5%