NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	101		Excitement	6.3 [574]		MVP	J.R. Smith (CLE): +21.1%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	1.7 [322]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -19.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21	0.03	0.12	-0.06	9	50%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.19	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.07	0.02	10	77%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09	0.10	0.03	0.04	20	63%	0.16	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	7	53%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Iman Shumpert	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	-0.00	24	38%	-0.04	5	-0.15	5	60%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	14	62%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	10	65%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	0.00	4	90%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	11	57%	0.09	1	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.12
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	16	38%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.7	30.6	16.0	24.2	2.7	44.0	147.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +36.5%

DET -4.3%

CLE +17.8%

DET -3.0%

CLE +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	19.2	15.1	14.9	120.2	108.3	105.1
season	15.8	15.0		110.3	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		105.0	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	18.7	20.6	16.7	20.9	19.2
DET	14.9	15.3	18.5	11.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	65	65	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-5	20	18.9	20.4	-1.54	15.0	15.3	-0.33
LeBron James	75	75	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.11	17	-7	24	19.1	20.6	-1.49	15.2	13.6	1.68
Tristan Thompson	55	54	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.29	5	5	0	19.0	19.6	-0.55	15.4	14.5	0.92
Kyrie Irving	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.15	9	1	8	18.9	20.7	-1.75	14.9	15.9	-0.98
Kevin Love	67	67	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	2	6	19.3	19.1	0.21	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Channing Frye	15	15	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	9	-8	20.7	18.9	1.75	15.9	14.9	0.98
Iman Shumpert	21	21	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	10	-10	19.5	19.1	0.40	14.3	15.3	-0.97
Richard Jefferson	24	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	14	-18	20.3	18.8	1.49	15.0	15.1	-0.03
Matthew Dellavedova	29	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.11	-1	11	-12	19.6	19.0	0.55	14.8	15.2	-0.41

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	23	22	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-13	16	16.2	14.6	1.53	20.5	18.8	1.73
Anthony Tolliver	20	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-9	8	15.5	14.9	0.64	19.2	19.2	-0.02
Andre Drummond	46	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-10	10	16.3	13.6	2.75	18.6	20.2	-1.62
Steve Blake	15	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-6	2	14.9	15.1	-0.23	21.6	18.7	2.89
Reggie Jackson	69	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-4	-2	15.1	14.9	0.23	18.7	21.6	-2.89
Marcus Morris	68	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-3	-4	14.6	16.8	-2.17	19.4	18.6	0.76
Tobias Harris	73	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.13	-9	-1	-8	15.1	14.5	0.59	19.2	19.2	0.03
Aron Baynes	31	28	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.03	-16	6	-22	13.3	16.1	-2.80	19.1	19.3	-0.23
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	75	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	0	-10	14.9	16.8	-1.92	19.2	19.2	0.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 88, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.27,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.03,0.02,0	94.4%
TOR 110, ORL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.3,0.36,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.08,0	93.7%
ORL 92, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.02,0	93.6%