NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	5.8 [622]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (CHI): +14.6%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	2.3 [1124]		LVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): -40.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.03	18	74%	0.23	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.07	-0.03	19	50%	0.13	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Jay Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Corie Blount	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	2	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	6	62%	0.05	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Trenton Hassell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.31,-0.34,-0.33,-0.34,-0.39,-0.39,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.35	-0.10	-0.05	24	22%	-0.27	5	-0.13	6	50%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.00	0.08	-0.03	6	54%	0.15	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	2	80%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	12	60%	0.10	5	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	14	61%	0.09	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	11	65%	0.08	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.03
Danny Ferry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mengke Bateer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	16	64%	0.07	5	-0.12	7	71%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	10	35%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	31.5	16.7	24.2	2.5	40.3	142.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.3%

SAS +20.4%

CHI -5.7%

SAS +13.0%

CHI -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	14.6	13.9	15.5	97.0	105.9	101.6
season	15.0	15.7		98.3	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		96.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.9	15.3	14.8	14.6	14.6
SAS	11.9	12.8	15.2	16.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddy Curry	57	59	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.23	15	-26	41	13.5	16.1	-2.61	14.9	12.5	2.43
Tyson Chandler	69	70	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.18	7	-18	25	14.2	15.6	-1.47	13.4	15.1	-1.71
Jamal Crawford	82	86	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.27	3	-14	17	14.7	14.5	0.16	13.6	15.4	-1.76
Lonny Baxter	18	17	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	-1	-9	15.3	14.5	0.79	11.9	14.3	-2.41
Jay Williams	25	22	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-1	-9	14.2	14.8	-0.63	15.9	13.3	2.57
Donyell Marshall	85	89	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	14.8	13.9	0.82	13.6	15.9	-2.33
Jalen Rose	96	96	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-1	-9	14.6	14.5	0.14	13.8	15.7	-1.89
Trenton Hassell	31	32	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.01	-18	7	-25	15.6	14.2	1.47	15.1	13.4	1.71
Corie Blount	37	39	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	0.05	-25	14	-39	16.0	13.8	2.17	13.6	14.0	-0.41

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	79	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.03	16	-5	21	13.9	13.8	0.09	14.4	15.6	-1.21
Steven Smith	34	32	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.05	15	-4	19	14.7	13.5	1.18	15.3	14.3	1.00
Tim Duncan	75	74	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	2	7	14.7	11.6	3.08	15.0	13.6	1.37
Tony Parker	85	83	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	6	-1	13.5	15.8	-2.32	14.4	15.6	-1.23
Bruce Bowen	87	87	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.03	10	1	9	13.5	16.3	-2.86	14.7	14.1	0.64
Steve Kerr	25	24	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	5	1	14.6	13.7	0.94	14.5	14.7	-0.17
Stephen Jackson	80	79	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.29	-7	18	-25	14.0	13.5	0.50	14.3	16.0	-1.73
Kevin Willis	37	36	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	10	-9	12.9	14.4	-1.48	15.6	14.1	1.58
Mengke Bateer	8	8	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	11	-11	12.5	14.0	-1.51	12.0	14.9	-2.86
Danny Ferry	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	10.6	14.1	-3.46	10.6	14.8	-4.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, CHI 117	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
POR 106, CHI 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,0.96,1	93.9%
DET 83, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%