NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	106		Excitement	5.9 [640]		MVP	Aaron Brooks (CHI): +25.3%
Chicago Bulls	115		Comeback	1.9 [631]		LVP	Chris Kaman (POR): -11.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.18	0.19	0.04	0.05	21	78%	0.27	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.21	-0.01	0.07	24	67%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Joel Freeland	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	6	64%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Allen Crabbe	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Nicolas Batum	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	12	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.12	-0.01	10	85%	0.26	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	24	61%	0.15	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	9	62%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	12	46%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	11	44%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	10	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.5	29.6	16.4	23.6	3.3	36.6	137.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +12.8%

CHI +13.1%

CHI +21.6%

CHI +5.7%

POR -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	CHI	NBA	POR	CHI	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	15.1	115.2	125.0	104.2
season	15.3	15.5		106.5	105.4
opponent	15.2	15.0		102.5	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.5	16.5	16.5	15.1	15.9
CHI	15.8	13.5	17.0	15.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	74	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.31	10	-19	29	15.8	16.5	-0.76	15.8	13.7	2.13
Robin Lopez	55	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.20	3	-12	15	15.7	16.2	-0.53	16.1	14.5	1.60
Joel Freeland	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-6	3	17.0	15.8	1.18	15.9	15.3	0.54
Nicolas Batum	69	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-10	11	16.3	14.9	1.41	15.8	14.0	1.87
Allen Crabbe	26	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.07	-11	2	-13	15.6	16.0	-0.43	14.2	15.8	-1.62
Meyers Leonard	11	10	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	7	-23	16.2	15.9	0.29	11.9	15.8	-3.90
Damian Lillard	71	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-6	3	15.6	17.0	-1.46	15.7	14.0	1.74
Steve Blake	37	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	1	-11	16.5	15.5	1.03	14.4	16.0	-1.59
Chris Kaman	37	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	1	-11	16.2	15.7	0.53	14.9	15.7	-0.86
Wesley Matthews	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-3	-3	15.7	16.7	-1.02	15.2	15.9	-0.65

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Brooks	30	32	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.05	23	-14	37	15.5	15.3	0.13	16.3	15.7	0.55
Nikola Mirotic	38	36	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.04	20	-11	31	13.9	16.4	-2.49	16.4	15.6	0.72
Taj Gibson	86	85	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-1	11	15.3	15.8	-0.48	16.0	14.9	1.15
Kirk Hinrich	47	47	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-3	15	14.0	16.9	-2.91	15.5	16.3	-0.80
Jimmy Butler	84	84	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	7	-5	15.5	14.1	1.38	15.8	17.1	-1.32
Derrick Rose	61	60	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.20	-5	14	-19	15.7	14.7	1.01	15.6	16.6	-0.98
Mike Dunleavy	54	53	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	14	-19	16.0	14.5	1.50	16.6	15.0	1.65
Pau Gasol	60	63	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.20	-12	21	-33	16.3	13.6	2.79	15.6	16.7	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 97, SAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.9%
DEN 107, LAL 122	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.82,0.88,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.89,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
HOU 83, ATL 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.72,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%