NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	6.9 [420]		MVP	Jalen Rose (CHI): +16.4%
Chicago Bulls	103		Comeback	5.3 [224]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -14.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	15	61%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Rafer Alston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	14	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	15	53%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	14	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	70%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Alvin Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	-0.05	16	26%	-0.10	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.07,-0.01,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.16	0.16	-0.06	0.19	-0.04	24	51%	0.29	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.03
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	0.00	13	80%	0.23	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.07	0.00	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	82%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jay Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	9	70%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	13	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	27.2	16.3	26.5	2.5	33.3	130.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +45.5%

CHI +23.5%

CHI +15.4%

TOR -35.8%

CHI +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CHI	NBA	TOR	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	15.5	103.3	112.0	101.6
season	16.2	15.0		98.8	98.3
opponent	15.1	15.3		103.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.2	16.7	18.0	14.6	16.3
CHI	12.6	17.6	15.5	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	68	69	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-10	12	17.2	13.8	3.40	15.1	14.8	0.29
Michael Bradley	5	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.02	-1	-7	6	19.0	16.1	2.85	20.2	14.7	5.50
Jerome Williams	62	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-6	4	16.6	15.7	0.95	14.8	15.3	-0.49
Alvin Williams	66	66	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-6	4	15.9	17.3	-1.45	14.3	16.8	-2.52
Vince Carter	72	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-6	4	15.6	19.0	-3.44	14.6	16.6	-1.99
Rafer Alston	26	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-2	-4	17.3	15.9	1.45	16.8	14.3	2.52
Antonio Davis	80	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-1	-6	16.6	14.5	2.08	14.8	16.2	-1.34
Jelani McCoy	37	36	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	-2	-4	14.8	17.3	-2.45	15.1	15.0	0.09
Voshon Lenard	44	43	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.24	-16	8	-24	16.2	16.4	-0.28	15.5	14.6	0.92

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	42	40	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.31	18	-10	28	16.5	13.7	2.76	18.0	15.0	3.00
Eddy Curry	50	51	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.22	15	-7	22	14.2	15.9	-1.71	18.7	13.3	5.48
Jamal Crawford	39	38	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.26	13	-5	18	16.0	14.3	1.69	16.0	16.5	-0.52
Donyell Marshall	66	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-1	10	15.5	13.8	1.61	15.5	18.4	-2.95
Jalen Rose	87	87	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	1	6	14.8	18.2	-3.38	16.2	18.4	-2.22
Tyson Chandler	44	43	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	14.6	15.4	-0.74	15.3	17.2	-1.84
Jay Williams	53	54	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.00	-5	13	-18	14.3	16.0	-1.69	16.5	16.0	0.52
Lonny Baxter	23	24	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.02	-8	16	-24	16.3	14.6	1.74	15.2	16.7	-1.54
Trenton Hassell	56	57	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.04	-9	17	-26	14.1	16.4	-2.33	15.3	17.9	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.22,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.79,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 87, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,1,1	93.1%
BOS 95, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.78,0.96,0.97,1,1,1	92.7%
NYK 94, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.76,0.71,0.85,0.85,1	92.5%