NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	102		Excitement	8.3 [201]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +54.5%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	4.6 [321]		LVP	Malik Allen (MIA): -16.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.55	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.41,0.55	0.14	0.43	0.02	9	81%	0.55	0	0.00	8	100%	0.07
Jeff Foster	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	11	53%	0.05	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	15	51%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.05
Ron Mercer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	54%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.01	13	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	10	50%	-0.10
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	10	52%	0.03	4	-0.11	5	40%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.24,0.4,0.39	0.39	0.13	0.25	0.00	10	80%	0.39	0	0.00	5	100%	0.07
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	9	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	10	43%	0.05	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	11	36%	-0.08	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.15	-0.02	17	48%	-0.17	0	0.00	12	67%	-0.04
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.14	0.00	15	47%	-0.07	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	0.3	26.4	16.4	27.4	1.7	40.2	140.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +56.0%

MIA -20.4%

IND +25.4%

MIA -7.8%

MIA -3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	15.6	15.5	113.3	101.1	101.6
season	15.4	16.3		102.2	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.5		100.7	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.0	17.3	15.4	15.4	15.7
MIA	15.6	16.2	13.4	17.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	75	78	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-7	21	15.1	19.0	-3.95	15.1	18.1	-2.97
Al Harrington	63	63	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-5	17	15.9	15.2	0.75	15.9	15.0	0.84
Ron Mercer	39	42	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.35	11	-4	15	14.6	16.5	-1.89	16.2	15.1	1.16
Brad Miller	72	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	1	5	15.1	18.0	-2.86	15.4	16.3	-0.84
Reggie Miller	53	56	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	4	-1	15.5	16.1	-0.58	15.9	15.2	0.73
Jeff Foster	11	13	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	17.8	15.4	2.40	16.9	15.4	1.54
Jermaine O'Neal	48	53	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	16.5	14.9	1.60	16.1	14.9	1.23
Erick Strickland	29	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	11	-15	17.2	15.0	2.21	14.1	16.3	-2.25
Jamaal Tinsley	60	60	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.16	-1	8	-9	16.2	14.8	1.42	15.4	15.9	-0.40

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	2	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-5	3	8.0	15.8	-7.76	1.5	16.0	-14.53
Rasual Butler	31	27	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.10	-5	-2	-3	16.6	15.1	1.57	16.0	15.6	0.41
Brian Grant	63	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.33	8	-15	23	16.4	13.9	2.53	16.5	14.2	2.32
Mike James	19	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	2	-11	18.8	14.8	4.00	17.3	15.3	2.03
LaPhonso Ellis	17	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	1	-9	16.0	15.5	0.49	16.4	15.6	0.79
Vladimir Stepania	31	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	3	-13	16.5	15.1	1.42	15.5	15.8	-0.34
Travis Best	75	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-9	11	14.8	18.8	-4.00	15.3	17.3	-2.03
Caron Butler	78	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-5	3	15.9	14.2	1.70	15.9	14.8	1.10
Malik Allen	75	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-5	3	14.6	19.5	-4.86	15.4	16.9	-1.54
Eddie Jones	79	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.40	-7	0	-7	14.9	19.3	-4.37	15.4	17.3	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.31,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.45,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.37,0.25,0.27,0	93.2%
MIA 98, WAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.37,0.15,0.31,0	92.4%
DEN 87, VAN 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.57,0.42,0	91.9%