NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	9.3 [61]		MVP	Carl Herrera (DEN): +11.3%
Vancouver Grizzlies	84		Comeback	3.7 [136]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -25.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Herrera	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.04	0.12	-0.00	9	50%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Eric Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.25,-0.2,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24,-0.05	-0.15	0.09	-0.01	22	45%	0.39	7	-0.43	3	67%	-0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	8	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Bryant Stith	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	8	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eric Washington	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Taylor	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	10	35%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.05,-0.15,-0.15	0.04	-0.18	0.01	18	57%	-0.13	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.15

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeJuan Wheat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	80%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	2	70%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.07
J.R. Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.09	-0.03	11	53%	-0.07	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.08
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	7	37%	-0.06	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.17	0.01	12	50%	-0.02	4	-0.23	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.15,-0.12,-0.25	-0.25	-0.06	-0.20	-0.01	18	52%	-0.04	3	-0.21	12	92%	0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	25.4	15.4	21.5	2.3	37.4	125.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +55.7%

VAN -26.3%

DEN +13.3%

VAN -3.1%

DEN +10.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	VAN	NBA	DEN	VAN	NBA
this game	15.4	16.9	15.8	97.8	94.4	99.6
season	15.5	16.4		100.7	95.7
opponent	15.1	15.6		105.4	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	14.0	15.8	15.8	15.4
VAN	14.0	18.0	19.2	17.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	67	66	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-10	23	15.6	14.9	0.73	17.2	16.3	0.80
Danny Fortson	54	52	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-8	19	15.8	14.8	1.01	16.6	17.4	-0.84
Johnny Taylor	51	51	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-2	7	14.4	16.8	-2.44	18.1	15.4	2.61
Antonio McDyess	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	15.4	0.0	15.42	16.9	0.0	16.94
Nick Van Exel	77	76	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.46	0	3	-3	15.9	12.5	3.37	16.3	20.7	-4.39
Bryant Stith	38	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	5	-7	16.8	14.4	2.44	15.4	18.1	-2.61
Carl Herrera	26	27	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.16	1	2	-1	14.0	16.0	-2.05	18.4	16.3	2.15
Eric Washington	34	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	10	-17	14.0	16.3	-2.24	17.9	16.3	1.63
Eric Williams	9	10	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	12	-21	17.2	15.2	2.01	14.7	17.2	-2.53

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Wheat	30	31	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.04	7	-10	17	17.5	16.6	0.89	15.7	15.3	0.40
Pete Chilcutt	24	24	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-7	11	20.5	15.6	4.81	13.9	16.0	-2.05
Michael Smith	39	39	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.18	-5	2	-7	17.1	16.8	0.33	14.8	15.9	-1.11
J.R. Henderson	17	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-4	5	17.8	16.7	1.01	14.0	15.7	-1.70
Felipe Lopez	67	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	16.9	17.1	-0.20	15.4	15.6	-0.20
Tony Massenburg	61	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.52	2	-5	7	16.2	18.6	-2.43	16.5	13.0	3.41
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	79	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.34	-7	4	-11	17.2	14.8	2.42	15.4	15.1	0.32
Cherokee Parks	54	53	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	4	-11	16.1	18.2	-2.12	15.3	15.5	-0.19
Mike Bibby	74	74	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.47	-7	4	-11	16.3	20.3	-4.00	15.6	14.5	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.53,0.46,0.57,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.31,0.42,0	91.9%
POR 81, ORL 79	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.64,0.81,0.87,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.53,0	91.7%
MIA 97, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.27,0	91.6%