NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	9.7 [87]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +58.6%
Washington Wizards	93		Comeback	4.9 [133]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -36.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.59	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.59	0.14	0.45	0.01	16	68%	0.59	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Christian Laettner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	9	50%	-0.09	1	-0.02	8	12%	-0.16
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0,-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	23	52%	0.01	5	-0.12	10	70%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.36,-0.36	-0.13	-0.23	0.00	9	22%	-0.22	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	20	47%	0.08	2	-0.11	7	71%	0.07
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.13	-0.00	26	46%	-0.13	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.12	0.02	18	47%	-0.11	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.35	-0.35	-0.11	-0.25	-0.01	4	53%	-0.21	4	-0.14	9	56%	-0.23

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	2.4	28.3	17.0	24.3	2.4	34.5	139.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +82.3%

WAS -29.6%

WAS -15.9%

MIA +13.1%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	15.7	14.7	15.5	103.2	98.9	104.0
season	15.7	14.7		107.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	16.3	16.1	15.0	15.7
WAS	13.1	16.5	14.5	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	64	61	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.34	15	-10	25	15.4	16.5	-1.16	15.9	12.7	3.19
Udonis Haslem	71	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-6	17	15.6	16.1	-0.52	14.0	17.1	-3.12
Damon Jones	75	75	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	1	3	15.4	17.0	-1.66	13.7	18.9	-5.28
Dwyane Wade	90	90	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.34	3	2	1	15.8	15.4	0.36	14.7	15.0	-0.28
Christian Laettner	39	37	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	-2	9	14.6	16.5	-1.90	16.3	13.7	2.62
Shaquille O'Neal	68	70	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	11	-17	16.6	13.6	2.94	13.5	18.2	-4.67
Michael Doleac	12	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	7	-9	15.4	15.8	-0.37	22.6	13.8	8.80
Keyon Dooling	17	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.08	-1	6	-7	17.2	15.4	1.83	19.7	13.7	6.04
Eddie Jones	39	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	11	-17	16.3	15.3	1.01	13.0	16.0	-2.93

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Dixon	9	10	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-9	13	22.6	13.9	8.65	15.2	15.8	-0.60
Michael Ruffin	12	13	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-7	9	22.7	13.6	9.19	15.2	15.8	-0.68
Kwame Brown	33	35	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-6	7	17.8	13.0	4.80	15.2	16.0	-0.80
Anthony Peeler	8	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-3	1	16.9	14.5	2.34	16.9	15.6	1.24
Jarvis Hayes	47	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	2	-9	16.5	13.0	3.47	14.6	16.9	-2.28
Jared Jeffries	62	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.31	1	-6	7	12.9	18.3	-5.38	16.7	14.1	2.57
Brendan Haywood	61	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	13.0	17.8	-4.80	16.0	15.2	0.80
Gilbert Arenas	91	92	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	14.4	25.7	-11.29	15.8	13.7	2.14
Larry Hughes	80	80	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.34	-7	2	-9	14.0	18.6	-4.59	15.6	16.4	-0.79
Antawn Jamison	67	67	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	13.8	17.1	-3.33	15.8	15.5	0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.37,0.15,0.31,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.46,0.31,0.42,0	92.4%
SAC 92, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.45,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.37,0.25,0.27,0	92.2%
MIA 101, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.28,0	91.4%