NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	6.0 [586]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +13.5%
Dallas Mavericks	113		Comeback	1.4 [1170]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -10.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	19	66%	0.22	2	-0.10	3	67%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.03	-0.00	17	67%	0.15	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.06	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Michael Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Greg Foster	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	20	41%	0.01	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.02	0.03	8	96%	0.21	2	-0.07	10	100%	0.08
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.00	0.11	-0.01	11	62%	0.19	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.01	-0.05	14	61%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	81%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.07	0.04	20	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.3	27.5	21.3	30.4	2.4	21.5	130.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +31.6%

DAL +5.0%

TOR -13.1%

DAL +20.7%

DAL +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DAL	NBA	TOR	DAL	NBA
this game	17.5	13.9	15.5	112.1	121.5	101.6
season	16.2	15.1		98.8	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.3		102.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	19.5	17.6	16.6	16.1	17.5
DAL	11.3	14.3	11.7	19.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Jefferies	7	5	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-14	17	17.1	17.5	-0.37	14.6	13.8	0.78
Vince Carter	59	63	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-12	13	16.9	18.5	-1.52	13.8	13.9	-0.06
Greg Foster	63	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-8	5	17.5	17.5	-0.08	12.6	17.0	-4.42
Michael Bradley	32	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-5	-1	17.0	17.8	-0.79	16.0	12.8	3.21
Jermaine Jackson	45	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.07	-13	2	-15	17.6	17.4	0.14	13.3	14.4	-1.09
Antonio Davis	85	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	0	-11	17.9	12.0	5.87	14.0	11.6	2.48
Morris Peterson	85	86	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.17	-13	2	-15	17.3	19.8	-2.52	13.8	14.7	-0.92
Alvin Williams	79	80	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	2	-15	17.9	15.0	2.86	14.2	11.5	2.70

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	73	70	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.14	16	-5	21	13.8	13.9	-0.11	18.2	15.0	3.23
Nick Van Exel	64	62	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.15	12	-1	13	15.0	11.4	3.50	16.8	18.9	-2.07
Steve Nash	79	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	4	3	13.9	13.4	0.59	17.2	18.8	-1.54
Michael Finley	83	82	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	5	1	14.0	13.0	0.96	17.4	18.4	-1.07
Shawn Bradley	51	50	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	3	5	15.4	12.0	3.39	17.3	17.7	-0.45
Raef LaFrentz	42	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	8	-5	12.0	15.4	-3.39	17.7	17.3	0.45
Raja Bell	24	23	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	7	-3	12.2	14.4	-2.17	18.2	17.2	0.98
Adrian Griffin	29	29	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	7	-3	12.2	14.6	-2.35	19.2	16.7	2.58
Walt Williams	20	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	16	-21	13.9	13.8	0.11	15.0	18.2	-3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.82,0.91,0.89,0.81,0.73,0.94,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 88, GSW 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.95,1	93.4%
LAC 93, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.65,0.63,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	93.4%
DET 76, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%