NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	5.7 [642]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): +10.7%
Golden State Warriors	95		Comeback	1.2 [976]		LVP	Jim Jackson (GSW): -23.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.01	4	89%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	8	61%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	15	57%	0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kiwane Garris	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.04	14	62%	0.06	5	-0.14	1	0%	-0.01
George Zidek	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Johnny Newman	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.2,-0.22	-0.08	-0.10	0.04	13	53%	-0.10	4	-0.12	8	75%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.02	13	67%	0.14	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	12	52%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	65%	0.07	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	7	70%	0.10	4	-0.08	9	67%	0.01
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	6	33%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	8	52%	-0.02	2	-0.03	7	86%	-0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.18	-0.07	-0.01	13	42%	-0.06	5	-0.18	10	90%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	0.7	25.0	14.8	23.2	1.7	37.7	125.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +30.0%

GSW +21.3%

DEN -4.4%

GSW +0.9%

GSW +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	15.6	95.7	104.4	102.5
season	16.2	15.6		96.7	92.9
opponent	15.0	15.2		102.8	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.4	17.4	17.1	15.0	16.7
GSW	15.4	13.9	14.9	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	19	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-6	5	19.5	16.0	3.49	14.1	14.9	-0.89
Anthony Goldwire	71	70	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-8	9	16.1	18.9	-2.79	14.7	15.1	-0.44
George Zidek	16	18	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-4	1	18.1	16.4	1.64	15.3	14.6	0.65
Tony Battie	55	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-1	-5	17.4	15.7	1.68	15.4	13.8	1.62
Dean Garrett	69	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-5	3	16.7	16.8	-0.16	15.0	14.0	1.09
LaPhonso Ellis	73	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.26	-1	-6	5	16.0	19.3	-3.29	14.5	15.6	-1.14
Joe Wolf	30	31	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-3	-1	17.6	16.3	1.33	13.9	15.2	-1.35
Kiwane Garris	23	22	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	3	-13	17.7	16.4	1.26	14.5	14.9	-0.40
Johnny Newman	66	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-5	3	16.2	18.0	-1.86	14.5	15.4	-0.92
Eric Washington	38	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	0	-7	16.0	17.2	-1.25	15.4	14.3	1.15

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	76	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.24	9	-2	11	14.7	15.2	-0.53	16.4	18.4	-2.02
Jim Jackson	78	78	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.24	5	2	3	15.2	12.4	2.77	17.4	13.1	4.29
Donyell Marshall	72	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	3	1	14.9	14.3	0.56	16.1	19.2	-3.06
Clar. Weatherspoon	70	68	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	7	-7	16.0	10.7	5.32	17.6	14.2	3.38
Bimbo Coles	40	42	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	2	3	13.8	15.5	-1.71	15.9	17.4	-1.43
Tony Delk	39	39	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	3	1	14.1	15.2	-1.10	15.7	17.5	-1.76
Muggsy Bogues	46	47	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	2	3	14.7	14.8	-0.17	17.1	16.3	0.82
Todd Fuller	34	36	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	4	-1	13.2	15.7	-2.43	17.1	16.5	0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 80, CHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,0.98,1	94.5%
HOU 95, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.55,0.62,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
IND 98, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	94.2%