NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	75		Excitement	9.1 [122]		MVP	Mike Miller (ORL): +33.7%
Orlando Magic	77		Comeback	2.2 [602]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -42.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1	0.00	0.10	0.00	9	44%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	9	48%	0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Rasual Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	10	43%	0.03	4	-0.16	1	0%	-0.03
Caron Butler	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	15	47%	-0.03	2	-0.13	8	100%	0.07
Brian Grant	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	8	47%	-0.10	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Travis Best	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	9	22%	-0.05	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.42	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.42	-0.13	-0.25	0.05	22	35%	-0.27	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.34	0.34	0.05	0.32	0.03	24	58%	0.42	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.11,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.00	15	45%	0.09	2	-0.10	1	0%	-0.04
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	6	17%	-0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.16	0.00	9	46%	-0.16	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.10	-0.13	0.00	7	50%	-0.05	4	-0.18	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	30.1	15.7	23.2	2.5	36.5	137.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +57.4%

MIA -16.7%

ORL +10.8%

ORL +4.2%

MIA -5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.2	15.5	83.3	87.5	101.6
season	16.3	14.6		94.6	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.9		103.1	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	17.3	18.3	17.0	17.2
ORL	15.9	14.0	14.2	16.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	45	46	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.04	3	-5	8	17.0	17.4	-0.42	15.2	15.2	-0.04
Rasual Butler	9	9	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-4	6	16.9	17.2	-0.31	16.7	15.0	1.67
LaPhonso Ellis	47	45	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.24	10	-12	22	16.6	17.8	-1.28	16.0	14.3	1.70
Vladimir Stepania	61	58	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-3	4	17.0	17.5	-0.52	14.3	16.9	-2.57
Eddie House	31	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.18	1	-3	4	18.5	16.5	2.06	14.3	15.7	-1.39
Caron Butler	79	78	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.46	-3	1	-4	17.0	18.3	-1.26	14.9	17.1	-2.18
Brian Grant	49	48	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.52	-4	2	-6	17.6	16.7	0.93	16.2	14.0	2.19
Travis Best	55	52	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.44	-9	7	-16	17.4	16.7	0.69	14.9	15.6	-0.70
Eddie Jones	74	71	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.42	-11	9	-20	17.0	18.1	-1.09	15.4	14.2	1.16

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Kemp	59	61	0.93	-0.43	1.35	0.54	13	-11	24	15.3	15.0	0.25	17.7	16.1	1.62
Pat Garrity	60	63	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.52	11	-9	20	14.9	15.6	-0.69	17.9	15.5	2.35
Mike Miller	74	77	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.61	8	-6	14	14.8	17.2	-2.43	17.4	15.8	1.54
Darrell Armstrong	75	78	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	15.0	16.0	-0.97	18.0	12.0	5.96
Jacque Vaughn	67	68	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.31	2	0	2	15.0	15.6	-0.59	16.7	18.5	-1.82
Olumide Oyedeji	14	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.11	0	2	-2	15.5	15.1	0.39	16.6	17.3	-0.70
Andrew DeClercq	20	21	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.01	-4	6	-10	16.5	14.8	1.72	14.9	17.9	-3.01
Ryan Humphrey	28	29	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.12	-3	5	-8	15.6	15.0	0.64	15.8	17.8	-2.03
Jeryl Sasser	21	18	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.05	-7	9	-16	16.6	14.7	1.90	16.7	17.3	-0.63
Pat Burke	22	21	-0.36	0.86	-1.21	0.05	-14	16	-30	14.4	15.4	-1.02	16.2	17.4	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.56,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.77,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 90, DET 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.76,0.85,1	92.5%
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	92.2%
DAL 79, SAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.73,1	92.0%