NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	79		Excitement	9.9 [65]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +22.6%
Sacramento Kings	83		Comeback	3.0 [627]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -46.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.02,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	22	53%	0.05	1	-0.04	9	89%	0.04
Scott Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.08,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	15	44%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.09
Antoine Walker	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.06	0.02	8	28%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.12	-0.18	-0.06	9	16%	-0.14	1	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.24	-0.07	-0.18	-0.01	12	42%	-0.02	3	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.46	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.37,-0.46	-0.18	-0.29	-0.00	20	31%	-0.40	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.06

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.12,0.29,0.21,0.35,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.00	16	71%	0.37	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.10	0.00	4	57%	0.12	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.04
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	13	46%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	16	38%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Vlade Divac	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.12	-0.00	19	38%	-0.23	2	-0.06	12	58%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.0	28.4	19.8	27.5	4.3	40.7	148.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +90.5%

DAL -23.1%

DAL -42.1%

SAC +24.2%

SAC +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.5	15.7	15.7	85.9	89.2	100.5
season	14.6	14.7		109.2	106.9
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	14.3	16.5	16.1	15.5
SAC	16.3	15.7	17.0	14.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	22	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-7	10	14.1	15.9	-1.74	16.7	15.4	1.38
Scott Williams	3	4	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-4	4	18.7	15.3	3.32	14.5	15.7	-1.23
Josh Howard	33	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-5	6	17.6	14.3	3.35	16.3	15.3	0.93
Eduardo Najera	37	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.37	5	-9	14	15.9	15.2	0.68	15.2	16.0	-0.83
Antoine Walker	42	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	6	-16	15.1	15.7	-0.58	16.2	15.3	0.96
Michael Finley	77	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	1	-6	14.9	18.5	-3.68	15.2	18.5	-3.32
Steve Nash	89	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	0	-4	15.4	17.3	-1.94	15.4	23.0	-7.57
Dirk Nowitzki	89	89	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	0	-4	15.3	18.7	-3.32	15.7	14.5	1.23
Marquis Daniels	68	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.41	-6	2	-8	15.6	15.1	0.45	15.9	15.0	0.86

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	36	37	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.46	12	-8	20	14.6	16.4	-1.74	15.3	15.6	-0.31
Chris Webber	84	84	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-6	16	15.5	17.4	-1.96	15.5	15.2	0.23
Mike Bibby	84	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.40	7	-3	10	15.2	20.1	-4.91	15.4	16.1	-0.73
Doug Christie	89	88	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.37	8	-4	12	15.5	19.2	-3.73	15.7	10.5	5.18
Peja Stojakovic	87	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.34	7	-3	10	15.7	14.8	0.90	15.8	11.9	3.90
Vlade Divac	36	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	8	-12	16.8	15.0	1.80	15.9	15.1	0.80
Darius Songaila	17	17	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	11	-18	18.4	15.1	3.35	14.9	15.6	-0.70
Anthony Peeler	32	30	-0.46	0.96	-1.41	-0.07	-13	17	-30	16.2	15.4	0.83	14.1	16.1	-2.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 75, ORL 77	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.56,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.77,1	92.0%
DAL 90, DET 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.76,0.85,1	91.9%
MIN 92, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.47,0.24,0.39,0.47,0.64,0.89,0.92,1	91.0%