NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	7.1 [403]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAC): +10.0%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	1.6 [1012]		LVP	Vlade Divac (SAC): -17.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	30	54%	0.13	4	-0.12	5	100%	0.03
Corliss Williamson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.02	8	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	64%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Jon Barry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	56%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.05
Chucky Atkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	0.00	-0.07	-0.01	7	75%	0.09	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Clifford Robinson	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	13	27%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	5	90%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.08	-0.00	-0.01	13	76%	0.17	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	15	53%	0.07	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.07
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	0.06	-0.01	22	40%	0.06	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.04
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	5	56%	-0.05	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.7	24.2	15.7	26.2	2.4	35.3	132.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +15.2%

SAC +15.0%

SAC +20.7%

DET -1.7%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	15.6	101.0	105.2	102.3
season	15.7	14.2		101.9	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.6	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.0	16.5	15.6	13.3	15.7
SAC	15.5	12.8	14.4	13.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	41	43	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.16	9	-13	22	13.3	17.5	-4.21	14.3	13.7	0.60
Zeljko Rebraca	31	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-7	10	13.8	16.6	-2.74	14.2	13.9	0.30
Michael Curry	32	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	2	-8	18.2	14.4	3.80	15.1	13.4	1.65
Dana Barros	36	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	2	-8	17.7	14.5	3.26	14.7	13.6	1.09
Chucky Atkins	62	62	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-6	8	14.3	18.2	-3.86	13.6	14.7	-1.09
Jon Barry	59	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.31	1	-5	6	14.2	18.0	-3.82	13.4	14.9	-1.57
Ben Wallace	63	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-2	0	17.1	13.1	4.02	14.3	13.4	0.94
Clifford Robinson	76	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	5	-14	16.6	12.6	3.93	13.6	15.2	-1.61
Jerry Stackhouse	85	85	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.33	-12	8	-20	16.0	13.7	2.23	13.8	15.0	-1.15

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	79	79	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-7	18	13.9	14.4	-0.49	15.9	14.6	1.34
Chris Webber	79	79	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-4	12	14.1	13.6	0.46	16.3	13.2	3.11
Doug Christie	56	57	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	14.8	12.8	2.01	16.4	14.6	1.79
Peja Stojakovic	80	82	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	0	4	13.9	14.3	-0.37	16.0	14.0	2.01
Vlade Divac	72	73	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.20	4	0	4	14.0	13.9	0.09	16.6	12.9	3.76
Hedo Turkoglu	41	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	3	-2	13.2	14.6	-1.42	14.9	16.3	-1.38
Scot Pollard	41	38	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.13	-4	8	-12	14.4	13.7	0.69	13.8	16.9	-3.14
Bobby Jackson	37	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.16	-6	10	-16	13.3	14.4	-1.16	13.1	17.3	-4.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.89,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, SEA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.62,0.77,0.85,0.84,1	93.5%
ORL 91, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.95,1,1	93.4%
LAL 89, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.58,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.4%