NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	116		Excitement	5.3 [827]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): +25.6%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.2 [505]		LVP	Caleb Martin (MIA): -8.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.05	-0.06	18	56%	0.16	5	-0.06	9	89%	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	6	86%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dejounte Murray	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.05	16	53%	0.10	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	11	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Saddiq Bey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	17	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	8	53%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Clint Capela	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	0%	-0.06
Jalen Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.04
De'Andre Hunter	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.32	0.01	0.08	16	89%	0.26	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	23	57%	0.07	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	19	43%	0.03	3	-0.06	11	82%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	12	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	2.7	30.1	15.7	29.0	3.0	29.2	140.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +29.0%

MIA -4.7%

ATL +24.5%

MIA -2.2%

ATL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	14.1	14.4	117.2	106.1	113.4
season	13.8	15.1		115.1	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.4		112.1	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.1	14.4	15.4	19.0	15.0
MIA	13.6	11.9	16.6	15.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bogdan Bogdanovic	55	56	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	1	9	13.8	16.5	-2.71	14.2	14.0	0.26
Dejounte Murray	72	71	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	3	5	15.7	12.9	2.86	14.8	12.3	2.56
Jalen Johnson	33	33	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	3	5	12.0	16.5	-4.45	13.0	14.7	-1.68
Onyeka Okongwu	44	44	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.06	7	4	3	13.5	16.2	-2.69	13.4	14.7	-1.28
Trae Young	77	78	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	6	-1	15.0	15.0	0.02	13.8	15.3	-1.48
Clint Capela	55	55	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	7	-3	16.2	13.5	2.69	14.7	13.4	1.28
Saddiq Bey	71	69	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.14	3	8	-5	15.5	13.6	1.85	13.0	16.7	-3.65
De'Andre Hunter	47	47	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	6	-1	15.5	14.5	0.95	14.1	14.1	-0.03
John Collins	41	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	6	-1	16.1	14.2	1.97	16.0	12.7	3.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gabe Vincent	48	50	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-12	13	15.8	12.6	3.20	15.3	14.7	0.63
Kevin Love	10	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-8	5	10.9	14.5	-3.58	10.9	15.3	-4.45
Cody Zeller	5	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-8	5	19.6	13.8	5.77	14.0	15.0	-1.04
Max Strus	49	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-10	9	14.9	13.4	1.46	14.4	15.6	-1.19
Victor Oladipo	22	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-3	-5	13.5	14.3	-0.74	13.8	15.3	-1.47
Tyler Herro	69	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-1	-9	13.9	14.6	-0.73	15.6	13.5	2.05
Caleb Martin	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-7	3	13.1	15.7	-2.59	15.2	14.6	0.67
Bam Adebayo	85	84	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-6	1	14.0	14.8	-0.77	15.4	12.3	3.11
Jimmy Butler	78	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-1	-9	14.2	13.8	0.46	15.0	14.8	0.25
Kyle Lowry	69	68	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	1	-13	13.8	14.8	-0.93	14.6	15.7	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.17,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.0%
MIA 94, HOU 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	94.9%
ATL 95, MIL 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%