NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	6.5 [611]		MVP	Devin Booker (PHX): +43.5%
Phoenix Suns	121		Comeback	1.5 [830]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -9.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.02	0.06	14	72%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	19	65%	0.18	6	-0.17	8	87%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.04	-0.03	13	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Christian Braun	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	0.02	-0.08	0.04	29	50%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Booker	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44	0.43	0.37	0.13	0.07	25	90%	0.50	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	31	50%	0.13	0	0.00	16	87%	0.05
Jock Landale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Warren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	0.00	9	39%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Landry Shamet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deandre Ayton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.8	29.6	15.8	28.2	3.4	41.3	147.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +52.8%

DEN -10.3%

DEN -10.6%

PHX +13.9%

PHX +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	14.8	13.3	14.4	110.7	118.6	113.4
season	14.7	14.5		116.6	114.2
opponent	14.5	14.5		112.4	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.2	14.7	14.3	15.0	14.8
PHX	12.5	12.4	15.7	12.7	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Braun	21	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-4	1	14.1	15.0	-0.90	14.0	13.1	0.90
Nikola Jokic	89	89	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.27	5	-12	17	14.5	16.7	-2.20	13.3	13.2	0.14
Michael Porter Jr.	78	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-10	13	14.6	15.6	-1.04	13.2	13.4	-0.19
Aaron Gordon	82	82	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.26	1	-8	9	14.9	14.5	0.37	13.8	11.3	2.46
Jamal Murray	87	88	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-12	17	14.6	16.0	-1.40	13.6	11.4	2.14
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	77	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	5	-17	14.9	14.5	0.42	13.3	13.3	-0.06
Bruce Brown	50	49	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.12	-14	7	-21	15.4	14.3	1.10	12.3	14.2	-1.94
Jeff Green	31	30	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.05	-20	13	-33	16.0	14.3	1.74	12.4	13.7	-1.29

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
T.J. Warren	56	57	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.17	20	-13	33	12.4	14.4	-1.99	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Kevin Durant	92	93	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-4	15	13.5	11.6	1.86	14.9	13.6	1.35
Jock Landale	46	44	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-3	13	13.2	13.3	-0.06	16.1	13.9	2.19
Devin Booker	88	89	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	0	7	13.1	14.2	-1.09	15.0	13.6	1.36
Cameron Payne	61	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	4	-1	13.8	12.5	1.32	15.3	14.0	1.33
Terrence Ross	31	30	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	-1	9	11.9	13.9	-1.97	14.9	14.8	0.12
Torrey Craig	7	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	11.0	13.4	-2.44	13.0	14.9	-1.95
Deandre Ayton	55	57	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	11	-15	13.5	13.0	0.51	14.2	15.6	-1.43
Landry Shamet	53	53	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	17	-27	13.9	12.6	1.39	13.8	15.9	-2.19
Josh Okogie	21	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	15	-23	14.5	13.0	1.57	14.5	14.9	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.8,0.7,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 79, BOS 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.68,0.68,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.96,1,1	92.8%
DEN 118, BOS 124	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%
TOR 79, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.92,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.4%