NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	9.3 [103]		MVP	Trae Young (ATL): +69.9%
Atlanta Hawks	111		Comeback	26.6 [55]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -21.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Tucker	0.40	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.4	0.09	0.30	-0.00	6	79%	0.40	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.13	-0.01	13	69%	0.28	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Caleb Martin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	9	62%	0.03	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Gabe Vincent	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	6	23%	-0.03	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.12,0.04,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	0.03	-0.20	-0.00	22	55%	0.02	3	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.22	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.12,-0.22	-0.01	-0.20	0.00	20	47%	-0.16	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.01,0.18,0.31,0.7	0.70	0.07	0.63	0.01	14	60%	0.78	3	-0.08	12	83%	0.09
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.08	0.18	-0.00	4	100%	0.28	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.02
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.02	0.02	6	100%	0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	17	53%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	46%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.02	7	69%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	13	61%	0.05	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12	-0.12	0.01	-0.14	0.00	13	46%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.5	28.5	15.3	33.4	2.8	33.3	143.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +42.2%

ATL +25.8%

MIA -42.6%

ATL +18.6%

ATL +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.8	14.5	117.0	118.1	110.8
season	14.9	14.6		112.0	114.3
opponent	14.5	14.9		113.2	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.4	15.2	13.9	20.6	15.9
ATL	13.9	13.6	17.4	14.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	43	45	0.53	-1.03	1.56	0.00	18	-19	37	15.5	16.2	-0.66	16.5	13.2	3.31
Max Strus	54	56	0.32	-0.82	1.14	-0.09	14	-15	29	16.0	15.7	0.34	16.1	12.8	3.23
Caleb Martin	2	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	3	-7	9.5	16.0	-6.51	10.3	14.9	-4.58
Duncan Robinson	30	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	7	-15	16.3	15.7	0.68	13.8	15.2	-1.46
Dewayne Dedmon	27	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	11	-23	16.0	15.8	0.23	14.3	14.9	-0.63
P.J. Tucker	62	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.67	13	-14	27	15.8	16.1	-0.34	15.2	13.8	1.37
Bam Adebayo	67	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.62	11	-12	23	15.8	16.0	-0.23	14.9	14.3	0.63
Jimmy Butler	79	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.49	-1	0	-1	15.9	15.9	0.01	15.0	13.4	1.60
Gabe Vincent	38	34	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.36	-15	14	-29	15.5	16.1	-0.67	12.9	15.8	-2.86
Tyler Herro	68	67	-1.03	0.53	-1.57	-0.42	-21	20	-41	16.3	14.8	1.52	13.3	18.3	-4.95

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delon Wright	60	61	1.09	-0.59	1.69	0.42	23	-22	45	13.5	17.0	-3.50	16.4	14.9	1.44
Onyeka Okongwu	46	47	1.00	-0.50	1.50	0.44	19	-18	37	13.5	16.0	-2.56	17.0	14.7	2.34
Bogdan Bogdanovic	62	64	0.92	-0.42	1.35	0.45	16	-15	31	13.5	17.2	-3.67	16.3	14.9	1.48
Trae Young	79	80	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	-4	9	14.7	15.3	-0.60	15.5	17.7	-2.16
Kevin Huerter	62	61	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.56	-5	6	-11	15.8	12.7	3.10	16.9	14.0	2.84
De'Andre Hunter	63	61	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.06	-12	13	-25	15.3	13.6	1.67	15.5	16.5	-1.04
John Collins	48	47	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	0.03	-18	19	-37	16.0	13.5	2.56	14.7	17.0	-2.34
Danilo Gallinari	50	49	-0.60	1.10	-1.70	0.07	-23	24	-47	16.0	13.4	2.59	14.4	17.5	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.42,0.35,0.24,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.29,0.18,0.25,0.48,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 86, ATL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.41,0.38,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.25,0.29,0.45,0.73,1	90.2%
CHA 91, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.44,0.21,0.32,0.85,1	89.8%
MIN 101, SAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.1,0.15,0.37,0.57,0.85,1	89.6%