NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	6.2 [625]		MVP	Rodney Hood (POR): +23.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	119		Comeback	2.4 [696]		LVP	Enes Kanter (POR): -14.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.04	15	76%	0.17	4	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Torrey Craig	0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.01	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	15	45%	0.04	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Will Barton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.01	11	58%	0.03	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.10	20	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Malik Beasley	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	8	11%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.20	0.04	0.01	12	76%	0.23	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	23	64%	0.30	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.03	0.06	24	58%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.02	0.03	8	67%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	9	27%	-0.11	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.0	28.2	14.7	30.2	3.6	37.2	143.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +42.5%

DEN -7.2%

POR +24.1%

DEN -9.8%

POR +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	15.4	15.7	14.3	117.4	128.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		112.0	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.6		109.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.1	18.9	15.4	13.4	15.4
POR	16.5	14.5	14.6	17.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	24	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-8	5	14.8	15.6	-0.84	11.7	17.0	-5.35
Torrey Craig	49	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-12	13	15.4	15.4	0.08	16.9	14.3	2.66
Monte Morris	5	4	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	-4	-3	24.0	14.9	9.08	12.7	15.9	-3.10
Mason Plumlee	26	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-1	-9	16.0	15.2	0.87	14.8	16.1	-1.27
Paul Millsap	77	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-12	13	15.4	15.7	-0.38	15.6	16.1	-0.42
Nikola Jokic	67	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-6	1	15.5	15.3	0.18	16.8	12.8	3.99
Gary Harris	75	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-8	5	15.1	16.9	-1.80	16.2	13.2	3.06
Jamal Murray	87	89	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-7	3	14.9	24.0	-9.08	15.9	12.7	3.10
Will Barton	50	52	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	0.07	-25	14	-39	15.9	14.9	1.02	14.7	17.0	-2.29

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Hood	60	59	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.06	21	-10	31	15.8	15.6	0.22	15.9	14.5	1.35
Zach Collins	56	55	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.06	15	-4	19	16.1	15.1	1.02	15.4	15.4	-0.03
Seth Curry	40	39	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.08	19	-8	27	15.2	16.1	-0.87	16.4	14.7	1.73
CJ McCollum	81	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.15	10	1	9	15.7	15.7	0.06	15.5	14.6	0.88
Evan Turner	39	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	5	1	15.0	16.2	-1.20	14.7	15.9	-1.25
Enes Kanter	55	54	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	8	-5	15.9	15.4	0.55	15.8	14.9	0.88
Damian Lillard	69	69	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.22	-2	13	-15	15.8	15.5	0.30	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Maurice Harkless	32	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.13	-8	19	-27	15.6	15.8	-0.19	14.9	15.7	-0.72
Al-Farouq Aminu	33	33	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.13	-9	20	-29	15.9	15.6	0.25	14.7	15.8	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 95, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.66,0.67,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.96,1,0.98,1	95.4%
DAL 95, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.62,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
PHI 91, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%