NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	91		Excitement	5.5 [754]		MVP	Gary Payton (MIA): +12.5%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	2.5 [619]		LVP	Samuel Dalembert (PHI): -14.4%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.04	-0.02	37	52%	0.13	3	-0.06	12	92%	0.04
Ivan McFarlin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.06	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	7	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	10	35%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	16	42%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Shavlik Randolph	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	8	12%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	6	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.01	-0.01	6	100%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.09	0.02	10	72%	0.21	4	-0.09	5	80%	-0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	67%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	18	66%	0.18	7	-0.14	14	93%	0.04
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	8	44%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	5	74%	0.09	5	-0.14	9	67%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.0	29.5	15.8	30.2	2.6	36.2	142.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +88.5%

PHI -1.9%

PHI -15.7%

PHI -22.3%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIA	NBA	PHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	13.8	15.4	94.8	107.3	104.5
season	15.5	16.0		101.7	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	14.7	17.5	19.5	13.8	16.2
MIA	12.5	16.0	13.2	13.9	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Williams	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	8.0	16.3	-8.27	19.0	13.8	5.24
Ivan McFarlin	2	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-12	12	4.0	16.4	-12.45	14.5	13.8	0.70
Alan Henderson	34	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-12	12	14.4	17.2	-2.80	14.0	13.7	0.32
Rodney Carney	3	2	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-9	6	20.0	16.1	3.94	14.5	13.8	0.70
Kevin Ollie	55	57	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-9	6	15.9	16.5	-0.57	13.8	13.8	-0.06
Samuel Dalembert	51	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-9	6	17.4	14.8	2.57	13.2	14.4	-1.16
Andre Iguodala	82	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-7	2	16.2	16.4	-0.20	13.8	13.7	0.15
Shavlik Randolph	27	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-5	-2	20.5	14.5	6.03	13.0	14.1	-1.18
Willie Green	41	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-4	-4	15.0	17.1	-2.07	14.3	13.4	0.88
Steven Hunter	36	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-4	-4	15.6	16.6	-1.01	13.7	13.9	-0.13
Kyle Korver	53	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	15.9	16.6	-0.71	14.2	13.2	0.96
Allen Iverson	95	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	16.3	8.0	8.27	13.8	19.0	-5.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	53	51	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.01	19	-7	26	14.8	12.6	2.23	16.8	15.4	1.40
Antoine Walker	57	54	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-1	14	13.6	14.1	-0.45	16.4	15.9	0.54
Jason Kapono	64	63	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.06	14	-2	16	14.1	13.2	0.98	15.9	16.7	-0.73
Dwyane Wade	93	92	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	2	8	13.6	20.0	-6.39	16.0	20.7	-4.76
Alonzo Mourning	56	59	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	2	8	14.3	13.1	1.14	16.5	15.7	0.74
Udonis Haslem	64	66	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	11	-10	13.7	14.1	-0.47	16.2	16.3	-0.12
Dorell Wright	62	64	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	14	-16	13.3	14.8	-1.52	16.3	15.9	0.42
Michael Doleac	12	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	12	-12	14.2	13.7	0.50	15.5	16.3	-0.73
Jason Williams	19	20	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	17	-22	12.1	14.2	-2.19	14.7	16.6	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, MIA 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.97,0.93,0.81,0.93,1,1,1	94.5%
PHI 70, NYK 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.91,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
WAS 87, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%