NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	88		Excitement	5.3 [753]		MVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): +21.0%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	2.4 [730]		LVP	Reggie Miller (IND): -15.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	24	62%	0.09	2	-0.04	12	75%	-0.01
Austin Croshere	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	22	61%	0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jonathan Bender	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	5	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	5	33%	-0.09	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	2	17%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Miller	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	0.00	5	21%	-0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.06	-0.01	13	79%	0.24	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	7	79%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.01	0.07	13	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	10	48%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	8	58%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	0.02	-0.03	11	51%	0.00	4	-0.09	17	71%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.01	8	28%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.8	36.0	18.7	28.3	3.4	33.4	151.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.4%

MIA +7.2%

IND -6.3%

MIA +9.7%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	17.8	15.7	107.3	120.5	100.5
season	16.7	16.2		101.1	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.8	94.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.3	18.2	18.0	17.9	17.1
MIA	18.4	16.1	15.5	22.1	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Bender	5	3	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-11	10	14.0	17.3	-3.26	5.3	18.3	-12.98
Jeff Foster	28	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-7	2	17.7	16.7	0.99	17.6	18.0	-0.43
Fred Jones	22	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-11	10	17.3	17.0	0.35	16.4	18.4	-2.01
Al Harrington	37	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-7	2	16.8	17.3	-0.51	17.0	18.6	-1.60
Jamaal Tinsley	57	58	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-12	12	16.6	18.1	-1.47	18.0	17.4	0.63
Anthony Johnson	25	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	0	-12	18.1	16.6	1.47	17.4	18.0	-0.63
Metta World Peace	73	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-6	0	17.1	16.9	0.19	18.2	14.1	4.04
Austin Croshere	32	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	-4	-4	17.3	16.9	0.36	19.1	17.1	2.00
Jermaine O'Neal	67	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-1	-10	16.9	17.6	-0.66	18.2	16.4	1.82
Reggie Miller	64	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	-1	-10	17.1	17.0	0.08	18.3	16.6	1.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	73	73	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.06	19	-7	26	18.4	14.0	4.37	17.6	12.3	5.31
Malik Allen	44	42	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.19	13	-1	14	17.7	18.0	-0.30	16.5	17.6	-1.05
Caron Butler	81	81	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.17	10	2	8	18.0	12.5	5.48	17.1	17.0	0.06
Dwyane Wade	76	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	2	8	18.2	13.4	4.82	17.1	16.9	0.21
Eddie Jones	65	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.14	9	3	6	17.7	18.2	-0.48	16.6	18.5	-1.84
Rafer Alston	27	28	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	5	2	16.6	18.5	-1.91	18.0	16.6	1.37
Udonis Haslem	2	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	15	-18	9.5	18.0	-8.55	12.0	17.2	-5.19
Brian Grant	47	47	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	17	-22	17.5	18.3	-0.77	16.8	17.4	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.97,0.93,0.81,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 87, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
PHI 91, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.5%
ATL 105, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.88,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.7%